Ask John: Are Japanese Light Novels the Next Big Growth Genre?

Question:
Do you think Japanese light novels has potential for considerable success in the American market? A lot of anime are based on light novels such as The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya, Zero no Tsukaima, and among others. I would love to read them as well as see current novels continued (such as the sequel to Crest of the Stars novels). Even if there are no anime or manga produced, would original novels (Owari no Chronicle for example) get their chance in America?

Answer:
Japanese light novels are already making headway into America. TOKYOPOP publishes Japanese novels including the Slayers, Devil May Cry, and Twelve Kingdoms novels. Dark Horse Comics will be publishing the Dirty Pair and Blood+ novels. Viz has published the Ghost in the Shell: Innocence novel. In fact, there are far more examples than I can easily recall. The Japanese light novel is definitely making significant progress into the American fan community. However, the exponential increase of translated light novels in America is relative to the fact that two years ago there were absolutely no Japanese light novels in the American industry. So even a few books being licensed and published constitutes an exponential increase.

As an industry observer and retailer, I haven’t seen a drastic increase in consumer interest in translated light novels, or demand for translated Japanese light novels. Since translated light novels are an untried product in America, numerous publishers are eager to expand into the format. Furthermore, expanding into translated novels has less competition than the saturated American manga publishing industry. But the fact that translated light novels represent new territory in American retail doesn’t mean that they’ll succeed or explode the way manga did.

Licensing translation and distribution rights to light novels is undoubtedly less expensive than licensing anime. Anime licensing fees are high because the cost of producing anime is relatively high. Novels don’t require a large staff of artists, so their production expenses are lower. Consequently, their licensing fees are lower. The lessened expense of acquiring Japanese novels may allow American publishers more flexibility to experiment with licensing a variety of Japanese novels, including popular titles that don’t have anime counterparts. But translated light novels also don’t appear to have the same market in America that anime has. Anime and manga are both primarily visual mediums while novels are prose. American magazine and newspaper circulations are declining while digital communication is booming because Americans have less time and patience for traditional reading. Novels certainly aren’t going out of fashion, but reading for pleasure may be more common in Japan than in contemporary American culture. Anime and manga are more easily and quickly digestible, which make them more appealing to the tastes and habits of contemporary Americans. So translated novels will probably remain subsidiary to manga and anime in America.

At the present time translated light novels, similar to Japanese visual novel PC games, are a niche within a niche here in America. Now that Japanese light novels have reached America in a concerted wave, I do anticipate that they’ll achieve a permanent foothold. But I don’t see any sign that they’ll ever expand beyond being a small supplement to domestic manga publishing. I doubt that imported light novels will ever match the explosive success and popularity that manga and anime have achieved in America. And I don’t see any reason to expect that the American demand for Japanese novels will ever influence publications or the development of new books in Japan. However, I can’t foresee the future. When American publishers like Viz and Eclipse began publishing translated manga in America in the late 1980s, there were no signs that a decade later manga would account for the majority of the best selling comics in America.