Ask John: Can Anime Grow in America in the Future?

Question:
Since we have so much talk about market saturation in the American anime industry, do you think the actual market will ever grow? Or was two years ago the biggest anime is ever going to sell in America, and it’s downhill from now on? But if the market could grow more, what (be it a title or new method of distribution or some other factor) could push the market to grow?

Answer:
I may be mistaken, and in fact, may be pleased to be mistaken. But at the present time I have the impression that Japanese animation is just not destined to ever achieve significant mainstream recognition, demand, and distribution in America. Anime may seem very successful in America, but even the very best selling anime titles ever released in America sell less than a tenth of the number of copies in their entire American lifetime as the most successful Hollywood movies sell in a single day. And new statistics show that the market penetration of anime in America seems to be shrinking. The number of new anime titles reaching American DVD is literally half what it was only two years ago. That’s not a sign of natural correction for market saturation. That’s a sign of diminishing demand for anime from American consumers.

Japan is the size of California, yet supports more anime than all of America. That fact implies that the often cited American anime market saturation was not caused by too many different anime titles being released. The market saturation was caused by a literal glut of DVDs. The same titles being released multiple times at increasingly discounted prices put an excess of DVD discs on the market, swamping retailers and reducing consumer willingness to pay new releases prices for new titles. I think and hope that a vast diversity of anime titles and genres brought to America does not cause a market oversaturation. If all of America has significantly less interest in a wide array of anime styles, genres, and titles than the much smaller population of Japan, than there’s no hope for anime ever becoming widely successful in America. Anime can and will only be popular and successful in America if American consumers and viewers are willing to embrace and economically support a wide variety of anime releases.

Presently American consumers seem to be purchasing fewer anime DVDs, and spending less on the discs which they do buy. That trend generates less financial capital which distributors can spend on licensing new titles. In the immediate future I don’t see a potential for a single title to exponentially expand domestic market interest the way Pokemon did in the early 2000s. I don’t foresee any title on the horizon that has an American market potential rivaling Pokemon, and even very popular and successful anime titles like Naruto, Fullmetal Alchemist, and Bleach have not created any massive growth in America’s anime consumer base.

I also don’t see a future potential for new distribution technology to significantly expand anime’s American market share. Even convenient and cheap digital distribution can only reach consumers who are receptive to anime, and I see no sign that there are currently enough potential American anime consumers to drastically expand the market. But that’s where potential does enter the equation.

If the anime market ever does grow in America, I think that significant growth will occur in future generations. Many American fans spent their childhood watching Speed Racer and Starblazers on television. Its these fans that grew up and became the driving force behind the birth of America’s anime industry. Another generation of Americans spent their childhood with Robotech, Voltron, Dragon Ball Z and Sailor Moon. It’s many of those fans who are today’s influential consumers for anime DVDs. And right now there’s a generation of young Americans, larger than ever before, growing up with anime. A decade or more from now, today’s children will be young, affluent adults that have had lifelong exposure to anime. Unlike present generations of Americans, to whom anime is something foreign, future generations will be intimately familiar with anime, and receptive to anime. And they’ll be in an influential position to demand anime and influence importation and availability.

Anime today is still a foreign oddity in America. Much of American culture is still wary of anime, and anime still hasn’t quite ingratiated itself into mainstream American consciousness and acceptance. But in ten or fifteen years there will be entire generations of young Americans to whom anime is totally natural and familiar. When today’s children become tomorrow’s parents, executives, consumers, and the arbiters of American mainstream culture, anime may find a widespread eager reception which it doesn’t quite have in America now.