Ask John: Could the Falling Japanese Birth Rate Distance Americans from Anime?

Question:
Do you believe that the demographic shift Japan is undergoing will further the disconnect between the types of anime popular in Japan and the US? The birth rate in Japan for 2007 is 8.1/1000 population, whereas in the US it’s 14.2 [per thousand]. Japan is actually losing population and its current citizens are aging, rapidly pushing up the median age. If the anime companies adapt to their changing audience by catering to their tastes, will it then by necessity not match the desires of the much younger market overseas?

Answer:
Honestly speaking, I’m not thoroughly researched or knowledgeable regarding Japan’s declining birth rate and aging population statistics. I’m aware that anime fans, as this question proves, are aware of the situation. The anime industry itself is also conscious of the situation, as the Japanese declining birth rate plays a significant role in anime series including Final Approach and Manabi Straight. But all reports that I’ve personally encountered regarding this phenomena suggest that Japan’s falling birth rate is affected primarily by conscious choice rather than uncontrollable natural circumstances. I’m not suggesting blame; only stating the fact that modern Japanese women are choosing to remain single longer, and are consciously choosing smaller families. This situation suggests that Japan’s population deceleration is not irreversible. Fundamental changes to Japanese social perceptions, which may even occur naturally as a result of current population aging, could reverse the falling birth rate. So, emphasizing my limited knowledge, I’m hesitant to approach this dilemma as a crisis situation.

As the average age of Japanese citizens progressively grows older, the anime industry may respond by creating more anime targeted at young adult otaku, more nostalgic anime, and less anime for teens and children. Theoretically, such a shift could result in more “moe” and giant robot anime and less mainstream shonen adventure anime. Already, looking at the upcoming anime of early 2008, shows including Macross F, Yattaman, Hakaba Kitarou, Druaga no Tou, and Tetsuwan Birdy could be considered nostalgic anime, and Soul Eater and the second Kyouryuu King series represent the few upcoming “shonen adventure” series. However, this trend can’t be blamed entirely upon a change in median age. Anime series targeted specifically at Japanese otaku are more common now because the Japanese otaku community that first appeared in the early 1980s has now matured into a vocal, influential consumer market. In effect, modern anime may have been due to evolve the way it has regardless of changes in the average age of Japanese citizens.

I must state that my perception may be unrealistically optimistic because of my personal bias in favor of anime, but I don’t have any strong anxiety that changes in Japan’s anime may alienate Americans. As anime evolves, I think that Americans may also unconsciously adapt and become more receptive to trends common in Japan. Allow me to cite recent examples such as Higurashi no Naku Koro Ni, Lucky Star, and Gurren Lagann. These series are very distinctively Japanese, and very pointedly targeted at contemporary Japanese audiences, yet these programs are also very popular among Americans.

Higurashi no Naku Koro Ni, known in America as “When They Cry,” blossomed directly out of Japan’s independent fan community. It’s also a very “moe” show, and a harem anime, yet it managed to become popular among Americans by adding gruesome murder mystery elements to its mix. Lucky Star is an “otaku’s” anime – a series specifically designed to immerse viewers into the attitude of Japanese anime otaku, including characteristics such as anime theme song karaoke, enka, nostalgic feelings, obsessive collecting, sightseeing within Japan, chatty small talk, and, of course, moe feelings. Yet despite Lucky Star being heavily steeped in Japanese otaku sentimentality, the series also managed to become very popular among foreigners. Finally, Gurren Lagann was nothing more than a self-indulgent revival of 70s and 80s anime characteristics including drill arm robots like Getter Robo and Baratack, homage to Captain Harlock, Gunbuster’s spirit of courage overcoming all obstacles, the passionate masculinity of St. Seiya and Otoko Juku, and the kinetic, highly detailed sci-fi animation of 80s sci-fi anime including Birth, Cool Cool Bye, and Harmageddon. Yet despite Gurren Lagann being just a revival of old anime concepts, it managed to strike a chord with contemporary American fans – many of whom hadn’t even been born yet when some of what Gurren Lagann harkens back to originally appeared.

Examples like these, I think, reveal that the tastes of American anime fans may not be quite as different from those of Japanese fans as thought. I think it’s possible that the development of Japan’s otaku community has obeyed a natural progression which America’s fan community is also following, merely a few years behind the Japanese growth. If that’s the case, given that the American fan community has evolved much faster than Japan’s fan community, largely due to differences in accessibility and communications technology, America’s fan community may be only a few years away from fully catching up to and sharing the contemporary tastes of Japanese otaku. If that happens, evolutionary changes in Japan’s anime production made in response to Japanese audience demographics may not create a noticeable rift between Japanese and American anime viewers. In fact, the prevalence of contemporary fansubbing may be perceived as compelling evidence that there’s already not as much difference between the tastes of Japanese and American viewers as suspected. After all, if Americans really don’t like contemporary anime, they wouldn’t be watching so much of it.

If trends in Japanese societal constitution continue unabated, soon the average age of Japanese otaku will be significantly older than the average age of American anime viewers. But that age difference won’t impact the Japanese anime production industry if America’s younger fans have developed an appreciation for the same types of anime that Japan’s older fans are watching. A disconnect between the tastes of American and Japanese fans will occur if Americans insist upon watching only the variety of anime that appeals to them, but frequent exposure to contemporary Japanese anime, and a diminishing supply of anime which adheres to stereotypical American tastes may forcibly evolve American fans into developing a fondness for the types of anime which are available and contemporary.

That is, of course, only one possible development. Other possible developments include the Japanese production industry developing more international co-productions targeted at American audiences, and Americans simply losing interest in anime as anime becomes increasingly less similar to their tastes. I can’t be sure what will happen, but I already see signs that American fans are more receptive to “moe” anime now than they were just a few years ago. So I do believe in the possibility that American tastes will gradually evolve to accept whatever type of anime Japanese artists create.