Ask John: Does 2007 Have Any Surprise Hits in Store?

Question:
Is there an anime series, movie or OVA on its way to America that no one knows has heard about yet that could wind up being an unexpectedly huge break-out hit in 2007?

Answer:
Based on known licenses and announced domestic releases for this year, 2007 looks like it may be a relatively quiet year. There are, of course, a few high profile titles premiering in America this year which will probably be very successful, but I don’t see very much potential for unanticipated success. Hit status in America seems to depend largely on either familiarity, advance anticipation, or heavy promotion. Last year the American release of Voltron was an unexpectedly huge success because it surfed on the wave of nostalgia American consumers had from the show’s 1984 television broadcast. Karas was also a surprise hit, probably due to its heavy multi-media promotion and high profile localization. I don’t foresee very many titles that could replicate that success in 2007.

Series such as Death Note and The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya are likely to be very successful upon their domestic release, but these are both high profile titles that are expected to perform well. I’m not certain that either will catch on with average, mainstream American viewers – Death Note because of its revolutionary distribution format, and Haruhi Suzumiya because it’s not a particularly accessible or appealing show for non-otaku – but both of these series should do very well within the American anime community. So they don’t count as surprise hits. The surprise will be if one or both of these series don’t sell well.

Although not nearly as popular in the American fan community as Death Note and Haruhi Suzumiya, Afro Samurai has been watched by millions of American viewers, so presuming that its DVD release is successful, it can’t be honestly described as an unexpected hit. Likewise the American release of the Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex ~ Solid State Society movie will probably sell very well, but considering the success of its preceding series, Solid State Society can’t be described as an unanticipated success.

Rozen Maiden, Mushishi, and Kuaru: Phantom Memory are excellent series. The later two are exceptionally brilliant shows that deserve widespread respect and recognition which they probably won’t get. Rozen Maiden, a show about animated dolls, is overtly too gothic and feminine to attract the attention of mainstream American viewers that gravitate toward masculine action shows like Cowboy Bebop, Trigun, Dragon Ball Z, Naruto, and Full Metal Alchemist. Likewise, Mushishi and Kurau are far too sedate, enigmatic, and ethereal to appeal to mainstream consumers that prefer sensationalistic and overt style and action. I’m certainly not trying to suggest that there’s anything wrong with enjoying straightforward and stylish action anime. Shows like Cowboy Bebop and Fullmetal Alchemist certainly deserve their fame and adoration. But I can easily envision thoughtful, evocative, and elegiac anime series like Mushishi and Kurau being overlooked by the majority of America’s anime viewers, just as they were in the fansub community when they were current in Japan.

Among known premiers planned for this year, there are three which I think aren’t currently highly anticipated, but which have potential to become surprise hits: Sgt. Frog, Witchblade, and Highlander: Vengeance. Keroro Gunso (“Sgt. Frog”) has become a tremendously successful hit in Japan. In fact, it’s bordering on becoming a contemporary cultural icon like Pokemon. Keroro Gunso succeeds, I think, because it has a mild, easily accessible humor that’s not too outrageous. Like a conventional sitcom, Keroro Gunso is easy to relax with because it doesn’t require a lot of investment or concentration from viewers. Some hardcore anime fans may find Keroro Gunso dull or merely mediocre because its comedy is so mild and conventional, but it’s precisely because Keroro Gunso doesn’t adhere to the typical standards of anime for hardcore otaku that it’s enjoyable and accessible for mainstream viewers. But the fact that Keroro Gunso is very popular with average Japanese viewers doesn’t necessarily mean that it will be a hit with American viewers. Shows like One Piece and Detective Conan are also anime aimed at casual viewers. One Piece and Detective Conan are tremendously successful in Japan, but haven’t been highly successful in America. Whether Sgt. Frog becomes a surprise hit in America may depend heavily upon its availability to mainstream American viewers.

Witchblade has not been exceptionally popular in America’s hardcore anime fan community, but it has potential to become a hit in America outside the anime community. The Witchblade anime is based on an already popular American franchise, so it already has an established potential American audience. Furthermore, the show’s structure – particularly its protagonist’s absurdly disproportioned physique and its emphasis on action – seem specifically designed to appeal to mainstream American viewers.

The Highlander: Vengeance motion picture, I think, has the most potential as a sleeper hit. The film has a crossover audience in both anime fans and the Highlander fan community, and since it’s based on a successful American franchise, the film has potential to attract mainstream American press and publicity. Furthermore, the film is animated by Madhouse specifically to appeal to Western tastes. Productions like Vampire Hunter D: Bloodlust and The AniMatrix have already proven that Madhouse is capable of creating animation that can attract and capture the attention and imagination of average American viewers. The Highlander anime has a great deal of American potential because it’s specifically written and composed for American viewers, and it’s likely to have the flashy action and crisp visual design that American viewers seem to love.