Ask John: How Well Will Howl’s Moving Castle do in America?

Question:
How well will Howl’s Moving Castle do in the U.S. considering Spirited Away has boosted Hayao Miyazaki’s fame (compared to that of earlier times) as a director? Will Disney use a stronger marketing plan than that of Spirited Away or will they stick to a limited release in theaters?

Answer:
There’s really no way for us to know what Disney executives will choose to do with Howl’s Moving Castle, but the state of the anime industry and market in America would suggest that we should probably expect an American release that mirrors the distribution of Spirited Away. The American theatrical release of Ghost in the Shell 2: Innocence has established, once again, the fact that mature anime simply isn’t popular enough in America to support mainstream American theatrical wide release. Even the recent Yu-Gi-Oh movie, a children’s film with massive American mainstream recognition, pulled in only a tiny fraction of the gross revenue that competing films earned. It would be wise of Disney to promote Howl’s Moving Castle by connecting it to Spirited Away’s Oscar win, but Spirited Away’s Academy Award did very little for the film’s American success apart from validating the movie’s critical respect. Although Disney probably will promote Howl’s Moving Castle as coming from the director who’s previous film won an Academy Award, I don’t think that pedigree will significantly help Howl’s American market potential.

Naturally, the American reception to Howl’s Moving Castle will depend heavily upon how accessible it is to movie goers, but Howl may have a few other advantages in its favor over Innocence and Spirited Away. Unlike those two films, Howl is based on a native English language book that many American moviegoers may be familiar with. Bookstores and publishers may also push the original Diana Wynne Jones book to coincide with the film’s American release, which may boost interest in the film. Furthermore, unlike the daunting intellectualism of Innocence or the distinctly evident Japanese culture and themes present in Spirited Away, Howl’s Moving Castle is a more universally accessible film. American viewers may find the European setting and non-culture specific characters, and the entry level but not condescending story of Howl’s Moving Castle more appealing and immersive than films like Innocence and Spirited Away, which are far more suited to specifically Japanese viewers than mainstream Americans. These characteristics of Howl’s Moving Castle may not guarantee American success, but they may contribute to a greater potential for American success than Spirited Away and Innocence intrinsically had.