Ask John: How Will Fullmetal Alchemist Do in America?

Question:
Now that Full Metal Alchemist is over (in japan, at least), how do you think it will fare in the U.S.?

Answer:
It seems as though every time a major, highly anticipated anime series is nearing its American debut on American television, I’m asked for my prediction about its potential American success. I don’t object to playing fortune teller, but I do want to make it clear that I can’t foresee the future and can only postulate based on informed speculation.

Because the series is coming to American television so soon after its Japanese conclusion, the American television broadcast will likely benefit from the word of mouth buzz within the fansub community. The Japanese release of the series is still current enough to keep interest in the series very high among American viewers, unlike American television premiers of shows like Detective Conan and Lupin which, while very good series, don’t have the “cool factor” of being brand new titles. The show also deserves to achieve success in America because it’s one of the best quality anime series ever licensed for American television broadcast. The show’s situational comedy and lighthearted characters can appeal to young teen viewers while its heavy socio-political themes make it relevant and interesting for adult viewers.

Undoubtedly there will be a great deal of controversy over American censoring of the show, as Fullmetal Alchemist contains graphic gore and violence that’s far more gruesome and intense than even live action American television shows can broadcast. Cowboy Bebop and Dragonball Z both turned into massive American hits largely because of their American television broadcasts, despite being edited to tone down violence. So the same will likely happen to Fullmetal Alchemist, but there’s a tremendous difference in scale between the amount of censoring that will be necessary in Fullmetal Alchemist relative to Cowboy Bebop or Dragonball Z because Fullmetal Alchemist is far more intense, gruesome and graphic than either Cowboy Bebop or Dragonball ever were. I do hope that the Cartoon Network will push the envelope with Fullmetal Alchemist by trying to edit the show as little as possible. We’ll have to wait and see how it turns out.

Even despite being censored during, at least, its television broadcast, I think the writing, animation and story development quality of the show will still shine through and appeal to American viewers. Basically, as long as FUNimation and the Cartoon Network don’t horribly mangle Fullmetal Alchemist on the scale of the treatment of Rave Master, I can easily foresee Fullmetal Alchemist becoming the next breakout, mainstream anime hit in America, on the scale of Cowboy Bebop.