Ask John: Is an OAV a Good or Bad Predictor of a Second Series?

Question:
Is an OAV a good sign for a second season? I’m specifically talking about Kure-nai. In 2008 it had a TV season and in 2010 it had an OAV produced that was distributed with the manga. Do you think that the OAV is a good sign the series is still popular enough to warrant animation being produced and a second season is possible or is it more like the series isn’t popular enough to get a season, so all we’ll get is 30 minute chunks once every blue moon?

Answer:
Judging the predictiveness of an OVA requires first understanding the precise nature of the OVA format and its contemporary cousin, the OAD. The OVA, Original Video Anime, is an anime production created specifically for home video release. An OAD, Original Anime DVD, is an anime produced specifically for release in conjunction with a printed book. These formats are distinct from anime made for TV broadcast, Internet distribution, or theatrical release. The OVA/OAD format is used for particularly niche titles. A title or concept that’s not perceived as having a sizable audience doesn’t get made into anime at all. A title or concept that has just enough audience potential to justify an anime production usually gets OVA treatment because an OVA only requires enough consumer interest to support one episode every month (or several months). A television series requires enough audience interest to support weekly episodes over a span of three or more months, and a movie typically requires a nation-wide audience or a fanatically devoted audience that will support the cost of a theatrical production (as in films like the Lyrical Nanoha and Fate/stay night movies). Uncertain concepts may launch as OVAs and either fade into obscurity after their completion, like Idol Project, Dragon Half, Ninja Mono, Gestalt, and RG Veda, or become surprise hits that grow into bigger, more widely distributed TV series, like Patlabor and Tenchi Muyo. The OVA format is also traditionally where successful franchises go to die. Successful television series hit big, but as the months go by their audience drifts away, leaving only the most hardcore devotees. That niche audience of hardcore fans may be significant enough, and demanding enough, to encourage the production of new anime, but the new anime is in OVA or OAD format because it’s specifically targeted exclusively at the remaining core of devoted followers. Successful series including Ranma 1/2, Samurai Troopers, Shurato, Yu Yu Hakusho, L-Gaim, SPT Layzner, B’t X, Rayearth, Kodomo no Jikan, Lucky Star, Magical Emi, Minky Momo, Minami-ke, King of Bandit Jing, Prince of Tennis, Rurouni Kenshin, Utawarerumono, XXXHOLiC, Tsubasa, Zenki, Zillion, and Zettai Karen Children, to name a few, have all had OVAs or OADs be their final anime releases.

However, there have been a handful of titles that have premiered as television series, shrunk down to epilogue OVA releases, then exploded again with new television series. (I’m consciously excluding revivals like Mazinger, Dancougar, St. Seiya, Cobra, and Slayers that had many years between the original TV series, OVAs, and revival TV series.) Aria had two television series then a break for a year, then an OVA, then a third television series four months later. The Sayonara Zetsubou-sensei anime franchise had two television series, then an OVA series seven months later. The “Goku Sayonara Zetsubou-sensei” OVA series was apparently successful enough to win the franchise a third television series that wound down with an additional two OAD episodes. The second and third Nodame Cantabile television series were a year apart with an OAD release in between. To Love-ru got a 2008 television series supplemented by an OVA series that ended this past spring. However, a new TV series has been recently announced. It may also be worthwhile to mention series such as El Hazard and Negima that traveled the production path of OVA then TV series back to OVA then back to TV (then in the case of Negima, back to two OAD series).

Ultimately, examination of precedent demonstrates that franchises that start as television series and end as OVAs have usually run their course. At the tail end of their viability, they’re popular enough to support OVAs, not not another television series. However, there are a few instances of franchises with such strong audience demand or adequate potential that they’ve clawed their way out of the realm of niche audience OVAs back to mainstream TV broadcast. No one outside of Kure-nai author Kentaro Katayama and possibly anime production studio Brain’s Base really knows whether the Kure-nai franchise has the audience potential to sustain a second TV series. The nature of the recently released OAD suggests that there’s still plenty of story that could be adapted into animation. The fact that a second OAD episode has been announced suggests that its producers are pleased with the performance of the first episode and possible the entire anime franchise. However, traditionally TV anime series that get epilogue OVAs rarely revive for new TV productions. Kure-nai certainly feels like it has a better chance of getting a second TV series than other recent series that have ended with OAVs or OADs, including Kamen no Maid Guy, Kodomo no Jikan, Gunslinger Girl, and Red Garden. But I’d still consider the possibility of a second Kure-nai television series a bit of a long shot.