Ask John: Is Another Breakout Anime Hit Possible in America?

Question:
There is a lot of discussion about the “state of the American anime industry” and the lack of a new “breakout title” the likes of Sailor Moon or Dragon Ball. While it seems that Naruto and Full Metal Alchemist are significant successes, it also seems safe to assert that neither are in the same league of Dragon Ball. Do you think the fact that people can (and do) download Japanese anime minutes after it airs basically ensures that the core fanbase of the industry will remain “self-sufficient” in their interests and thus never make a cumulative “boom” like with the advent of Dragon Ball? If 1/3, or perhaps even 1/2 or more of those people who like anime are already on top of the latest thing before it is ever announced in America, and if anime is so easy to import with the advent of the internet, how can there ever be another Dragon Ball-type success in America?

Answer:
I’m going to oppose the thrust of your question because I think its foundation is mistaken. I mean no offense. I simply think that you’re approaching the question from the wrong perspective. Your doubts about the possibility of a future breakthrough anime in America are based on the assumption that it’s America’s hardcore anime fans that support breakout hits. On the contrary, it’s actually the interest of majority non-hardcore anime fans that creates breakthrough hits. The anime fan community and online anime distribution have the potential to make an anime highly successful in America, but America’s biggest anime hits have been titles that weren’t tremendously popular among hardcore American anime fans.

Akira, Sailor Moon, and Dragonball were all popular in America’s fan community, but it’s the interest of mainstream American consumers that drove these titles to their pinnacle of success. Better examples are Pokemon and Yu-Gi-Oh. Pokemon is undeniably the most successful anime property ever released in America, yet hardcore American anime fans virtually disdain it. Likewise Yu-Gi-Oh is tremendously successful in America despite the fact that its not popular at all within America’s online “otaku” community. There are enough hardcore anime fans in America to transmute (forgive the pun) the online popularity of Fullmetal Alchemist into mainstream success. But Fullmetal Alchemist hasn’t reached the point of common mainstream name recognition that titles like Dragonball, Pokemon and Yu-Gi-Oh have reached because there just aren’t enough hardcore anime fans in America to have an impact on mainstream American society. Even if there are a half million hardcore anime fans in America- and I suspect the number is far less than that- such a number of fans doesn’t approach the millions needed to make a noticeable impact on nationwide mainstream American society. As an illustration of the relative “mainstream” status of anime in America, Peter Jackson’s King Kong sold more DVDs in one week than all of the Inuyasha and Cowboy Bebop DVDs ever released in America combined. Inuyasha and Cowboy bebop both required numerous DVDs and several years each to reach just one million discs sold. King Kong sold 6.5 million discs in six days. Another revealing example is the fact that the edited, English dubbed only debut American Naruto DVD became America’s best selling anime television series DVD during the week of its release, despite the fact that America’s hardcore fan community virtually boycotted the release. According to Viz, demand for the second censored DVD has been even higher than demand for the first volume, again, despite the fact that America’s hardcore fans are largely refusing to purchase it. It’s almost entirely mainstream consumer demand, not support from America’s hardcore fan community, that has turned the edited, dubbed Naruto into a hit in America.

History seems to prove that the most successful anime hits in America have arrived without the influence of America’s hardcore fan community. Sailor Moon and Dragonball Z both reached massive mainstream success in America before digital distribution of anime existed. I don’t think that anyone in America expected the tremendous success of Pokemon and Yu-Gi-Oh. I’m not suggesting that American anime fans have no influence on the popularity of anime in America because that’s certainly not the case. But mainstream breakthrough hits are rare exceptions in America, and they also seem to be exceptional cases that succeed with or without the support of America’s otaku community. Sailor Moon and Dragonball had the support of American fans; Pokemon and Yu-Gi-Oh didn’t.

America’s anime fan community existed before there was an professional American anime distribution industry. I have no doubt that anime fans worldwide will always find a way to sustain their hobby regardless of circumstances. As long as there is anime, there will be anime fans. Having access to new anime via digital files found online can turn an obscure title into an international hit, and can satiate demand for a title before its official American release. But in order to achieve far reaching mainstream American success, an anime title has got to have much more exposure and support than just a limited number of hardcore fans who watch downloaded episodes. I don’t know if there will be another breakthrough anime hit in America, and I certainly can’t predict what it will be. But I do believe that if there is another anime hit in America on the scale of Dragonball Z or Pokemon, it will be children watching the series on American television, and parents buying merchandise for those children- not hardcore fans watching anime on their computers- who will be primarily responsible for that mainstream success.