Ask John: Is The Anime Craze in America Slowing?

Question:
Do you think that the anime craze is finally starting to die down? Manga distributors are dropping titles left and right, which would seem to indicate something. Is it simply a sign of companies starting to realize that certain titles sell better here than others, or is it just an unexplained event?

Answer:
Since I don’t have much access to statistics or reports that aren’t public, I can only speculate based on personal observations and limited access to market research. I don’t think that the size of the hardcore anime fan market has significantly increased or decreased in size within the past few years. During the early part of this decade, around 2000-2002, titles like Dragonball and Pokemon brought a massive number of new consumers and fans into the American fan community. But as the American interest in Pokemon leveled off, the hardcore American fan community also leveled off.

There’s been a lot of discussion about over saturation of the American market. That’s undeniably one contributor to the current state of the American anime industry, but it’s not the only one. There are many factors contributing to the present state of the anime industry including over saturation, consumer speculation, and rising business costs. When the estimated size of the American consumer market for anime is compared to the number of anime and manga titles available in America, it may seem like the American market is over saturated. It may be said that there are just so many anime and manga titles available in America now that consumers can’t support them all, so sales of some titles inevitably lag behind sales of other titles. However, considering that Japan is roughly the size of California, yet supports more anime and manga titles than all of America combined, deduction would suggest that America is capable of supporting many, many more anime and manga titles than are presently available. If there are theoretically enough consumers in America to make a wide variety of anime and manga commercially viable, then something beyond just market saturation is at work.

Logically, some anime and manga titles aren’t selling well in America because consumers aren’t buying them. There can be numerous reasons for this lack of consumer support. I believe that the most significant reason why American consumers aren’t buying certain anime titles, or aren’t buying as much anime, is because shortsightedness on the part of the American distribution industry has encouraged American consumers to delay buying. Numerous domestic distributors have made a habit of trying to maximize profits by re-soliciting catalog titles at discounted price points. When anime DVDs are released at half price a year of less after their debut, wise consumers realize that their best interests are served by waiting and not buying new release anime DVDs. Deeply discounted prices and re-releases generate immediate profits for distributors, but don’t generate long term consumer loyalty. Much of the American anime industry has conditioned consumers to literally stop supporting the industry by no longer paying retail price points that help companies prosper and grow. Generally domestic anime DVDs cost $30 because retail prices significantly lower than that don’t generate enough profit to support distribution companies.

Certain domestic distributors blame the slump in domestic DVD sales on illegal, underground distribution including fansubs and manga scanlations. But in my experience working for an anime retailer, numerous successful domestic releases would not have been successful without the promotion and awareness that their earlier fansubs created. In my experience, fansubs can decrease potential domestic DVD sales, but titles released in America without the prior promotion created by fansubs simply do not sell as well as titles that have been heavily fansubbed. Contemporary American anime fan consumers, en mass, do not buy titles that they haven’t heard of before. So for better and worse, increased consumer awareness has had a significant impact on anime in America. Trends in American anime retail have made consumers more hesitant to pay full retail prices, and fansubs seem to heavily direct consumer taste to certain titles and away from others.

The intense competition for distribution rights to high profile anime titles, and the demand for sheer quantity of anime to release in America has encouraged Japanese licensors to seek top dollar for access to their properties. The combination of expensive licenses and production costs and diminished profits from discounted American sales results in domestic distributors that simply can’t afford to acquire new titles, or can’t afford to continue releasing titles in America at the same pace that they used to. Certain distributors that are still strong and aggressive have been subsidized by live action and other non-anime releases, or may benefit from the support of their Japanese parent companies.

Over the past two or three years I’m sure that the number of the American anime fans has increased, but probably not at the staggering, exponential rate of that occurred during the early 2000s. And there are definitely some anime and manga titles that are more marketable to that consumer market than others. But the domestic market for anime is constricting not because there are fewer fans, but because existing fans aren’t buying as much anime as they used to and aren’t paying the same prices for anime that they used to partially because consumers are now more discriminating and partially because the short sightedness and greed of a lot of domestic anime distribution companies has conditioned consumers to stop supporting the anime industry. Marketing strategies from many domestic distributors and selfishness from consumers and distributors both has changed the perception of anime in America from art that needs the support of fans to thrive to a market commodity that’s only as valuable as its material worth. Numerous domestic distributors have prioritized the profitability of anime over its status as a cultural, artistic import. And American consumers have developed a mistaken presumption that they’re entitled to cheap or free anime. The combination of these two factors is, I think, the explanation for why the anime industry in America seems to be constricting.