Ask John: Is the Probability of Anime Being Licensed Affected by Manga Sales?

Question:
Is the probability of an anime being licensed affected by its manga counterpart being successful in America?

Answer:
This is an interesting question which I regrettably can’t conclusively answer. I don’t have any facts or statistics to refer to that could suggest an answer. I can only propose a response based on instinct and vague impressions. So please understand that this response is merely a considered estimate, not a verified fact.

Years ago, when there were relatively few English translated Japanese manga available in America, I do think that the success of a translated manga could have significantly increased the chances of its anime adaptation reaching America. These days, with the American manga market as big as it is, and the American anime industry as established as it is, I think that the success of a manga series in America may be briefly considered in licensing decisions. But I don’t think that it’s a significant motivating factor. The manga market in America is now so saturated with titles that it’s difficult for any single title to make a significant impact on the market, and major titles seem to be often licensed conjunctively – most notably Viz licensing both manga and anime versions of best selling titles. Rather than seeing a manga spur the American license of an anime, increasingly it seems as though an anime release precedes a manga release.

Eight of ICv2’s fall 2006 top ten list of estimated hottest manga titles in America have anime adaptations. Among those 8, the Fruits Basket, Fullmetal Alchemist, and Loveless anime premiered in America prior to the manga. The Naruto, Bleach, Tsubasa Chronicle, and Negima manga debuted in America before their anime adaptations, but each of these anime series was immensely popular in Japan and in America’s hardcore fan community prior to their American release. It’s possible that the English language manga release for these series paved the way for their anime to follow, but I have the impression that each of these four anime series would have reached American DVD regardless of the advance success of their manga. Among the estimated top ten manga titles in America, Death Note is the only one with an anime adaptation not yet licensed for American release. It’s arguable that the popularity of the manga in America may lead to the Death Note TV series coming to America. But I think it’s more accurate to say that the popularity of the Death Note franchise in Japan and in America’s fan translation community has stimulated the official translated release of the manga, and will be responsible for an American release of the anime series. In each of these cases, I don’t see any sign that the anime reached America as a direct result of the success of the original manga.

A highly successful manga may boost the name recognition of a title in America, which increases demand for its anime incarnation and makes marketing an anime version easier for a distributor, but I don’t think that a domestic manga release alone creates enough demand to stimulate an anime being licensed. Anime get licensed for American release because they’re successful in Japan, because they’re available to the domestic distributor, or because the American consumer community is familiar with the title through exposure to manga and fansubs. I don’t think that any manga release in America reaches a large enough audience to encourage an American anime release by itself. Naruto is the best selling manga in America, but the Naruto anime wasn’t licensed for release just because the manga was popular in America. The Naruto anime was licensed for American release because fan translations of the manga and anime had steadily built up demand for the franchise for years before either the manga or anime was ever formally licensed in America.

The American license of anime titles like Crayon Shin-chan, Nanaka 6/17, and Shichinin no Nana well after their manga debuted here illustrates the fact that anime titles do get licensed for American release after their manga, even if the manga is not successful or popular. There seem to be many more instances of manga being licensed for translation after the anime has reached America, such as Infinite Ryvius, Gunparade March, Tsukihime, Samurai Deeper Kyo, Ai Yori Aoshi, Evangelion, Detective Conan, St Seiya, Gundam Seed, and many others. Evidence seems to show that an anime being released in America may pave the way for its manga to follow, but I can’t think of any instances in which the success of an American manga release, by itself, seemingly significantly increased the chances of its anime being licensed. A manga preceding an anime release in America may stimulate some minor increase in demand for the anime, but my observations tell me that fansubs and unlicensed fan distribution long before any official American release have a much bigger impact on creating demand than official American manga releases do.