Ask John: Is There A Current Trend of Licensing Niche Anime?

Question:
Do you think that licensors are in a trend of picking up more niche, “fan-friendly” titles since supposedly unlikely titles like The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya, Kimi ga Nozomu Eien, Rozen Maiden, Strawberry Marshmallow, and Ayakashi have been licensed? (I’m crossing my fingers for Air, KyoAni’s Kanon, and Aria.)

Answer:
I think that any observer reflecting on the past year or two of the American anime licensing industry has to agree that there’s been a noticeable trend in acquiring titles that may be classified as “niche” or specifically “otaku oriented” anime series. But in a discussion such as this, there are two different ways to define “trend,” and I definitely think that one perspective is more appropriate than the other. A licensing trend may be defined as a transient collective behavior or methodology, or as an observable direction. I think that the recent trend in acquiring “fan friendly” anime series is the second type of trend – an actual evolution in the licensing business rather than a conscious decision to concentrate on a particular type of anime. Allow me to explain more clearly.

I think that the American anime licensing industry is increasingly picking niche shows out of necessity more than desire. There are still hundreds, possibly thousands of anime series available in Japan which have never been formally released in America, but many of those shows aren’t financially viable for American acquisition. Vintage anime, most sports and shoujo anime, children’s anime, and many robot anime are not commercially viable for American release because they don’t sell enough copies to break even or generate profit. That leaves a significantly reduced pool of potential titles to license for American release. Within that remaining pool of possible licenses, most of the high profile and potential mainstream hits have already been licensed. Dragon Ball, Naruto, Bleach, Detective Conan, Crayon Shin-chan, Yu Yu Hakusho, Inuyasha, Rurouni Kenshin, Keroro Gunso, Death Note, and most of the other similar high profile titles are already licensed. Even some of the older, long running and highly successful titles like Kodomo no Omocha and Yawara have been licensed. There are still a handful of these major franchises exclusive to Japan, including Eyeshield 21 and Hunter x Hunter, but American licensors may be looking toward shorter and smaller market titles out of necessity.

Furthermore, with the profitability of anime in America waning and licensing costs reportedly reaching as high as $80,000 per episode, shorter niche market shows may be an inevitable recourse for domestic licensors. At least Media Blasters CEO John Sirabella has publicly stated that Media Blasters has been recently acquiring shows like Joshikosei, Muteki Kanban Musume, and Kasimasi because they’re more affordable and have a better chance of become profitable than more expensive, high profile series. Licensing cost is based on series popularity, but also on practical length. The more you get, the more you have to pay for, so licensing a long series costs more than licensing a short series. Lesser known shows, and shows that have a distinctly smaller audience potential are less expensive to license than high profile mainstream hits, but at the same time there’s a reason why “niche market” shows are considered niche market shows. A high profile, expensive license may, in fact, never generate any profit in America because its sales revenue may not even cover the licensing and localization expenses. Niche market shows are less expensive to acquire and produce, but they also have a significant risk of never being profitable because they appeal to a smaller market and have lower sales potential. Domestic licensors may be acquiring more surprising and niche market titles like Zipang, Suzumiya Haruhi, Joshikosei, Rozen Maiden, and Ayakashi not so much as an effort to appease hardcore American anime fans, but rather because these niche shows are the only anime left to license that have any chance of being profitable in America. If my theory is correct, this recent trend of more and more niche market and obscure shows being licensed for American release is not an illustration of an effort by the American anime community to win the support of hardcore anime fans, and it’s not a temporary trend. Rather, this new trend is actually the inevitable path that the American anime industry is taking by necessity. It’s not a choice; it’s one of the only roads left open to the industry to continue moving into the future. American licensors are acquiring more niche market shows because that type of anime is all that’s left to viably license, at least until the American consumer market becomes more supportive of a bigger variety of anime, or Japanese licensing costs are forced to re-adjust to market conditions.

On a side note, considering its iyashikei (“healing”) style and the fact that the manga was apparently unsuccessful in America, a domestic license for Aria the Animation might be a bit of a longshot. However, considering that everything else that Kyoto Animation has ever produced has been licensed for American release, and considering their high profile, I do think that it’s only a matter of time before the Air and 2006 Kanon television series are brought to America.