Ask John: What’s the Future of Anime on TV?

Question:
A few weeks ago Adult Swim pushed Code Geass and Moribito to the 5:00 and 5:30 slots and Toonami has ended their run. Why is Cartoon Network airing less anime?

What is the future of anime on TV, since Adult Swim is moving anime to dead hours, Fuse is dropping its block, and Sci-fi is moving anime to one night only from which it was originally launched both Monday & Tuesday?


Answer:
Several years ago there was a common sentiment among American skeptics that anime was merely a passing fad – a novelty import that exploded in popularity in America and influenced American movies and comics because of its fresh uniqueness, but was destined to quickly vanish. The American anime boom has lasted long enough to outlive the classification of temporary novelty, but mainstream America’s fascination with Japanese animation may be waning after a decade long surge of interest. Anime is not a passing fad in America because there’s been a devoted fan following for anime in America for over 20 years, and I wholeheartedly believe that there will always be obsessive American anime otaku. However, declining domestic anime sales and drastic, sudden decreases of interest in anime broadcast on American television suggest that many Americans are now less fascinated by anime.

The Cartoon Network has admitted forthrightly that the Toonami programming block has been abandoned in response to diminishing ratings. Adult Swim has also confirmed that viewer response to the broadcast of Code Geass has been poor. In 2008 so far, the most watched Saturday night broadcasts on Adult Swim among the network’s target audience of 18-34 year old men have attracted a high of slightly over 400,000 viewers. The most watched episode of Code Geass ever broadcast on Adult Swim was the series’ premier episode that attracted roughly 368,000 young adult male viewers. Since the series’ spring debut, even re-broadcasts of Death Note and Cowboy Bebop episodes have drawn more viewers than premier episodes of Code Geass. And while Bleach, one of Adult Swim’s most popular anime titles, can occasionally attract over 400,000 viewers, no anime title on Adult Swim is remotely as popular as domestic animated series like Family Guy that routinely attract more than a million viewers.

Fundimentally, anime is Japanese entertainment intended for Japanese audiences. After a number of years of American television viewers tuning in because anime is unusual, I think we’re now seeing signs of average American television viewers becoming accustomed to anime and losing interest in it. If even America’s hardcore otaku community frequently bemoans the repetition and unoriginality of contemporary anime, it should come as little surprise to find casual viewers even less inclined to continue tuning in.

There will always be anime imported into America, but anime will only appear on American TV if viewers watch it in significant numbers. While there was, and probably still is a remote possibility that anime could establish a permanent niche on American television with viewer support and demand, present circumstances suggest that the early 2000s have been a transitory boom and the future of anime on American television will settle back into the pattern that characterized the 60s through 80s and early 90s that saw only occasional anime titles slip onto American TV. With so many American broadcasters trimming their anime broadcasts, it seems unrealistic to expect a sudden resurgence of anime programming on American television networks in the foreseeable future.

Actually, what we may be seeing now is a transition from anime on television to anime broadcast online. Vuze, Youtube, BOST TV, Crunchyroll, Hulu, and Joost, among others, are all now making significant advances in substituting for, and replacing traditional television broadcast. Online distribution allows for much more flexibility than traditional television broadcast, including options for selectable translations, rapid export from Japan to the rest of the world, the potential for selectively targeted advertising, the ability to reach viewers on their schedule, lowered distribution costs, and effective targeting of the core audience through multiple distribution tools that the target demographic uses. So, in fact, the future of anime on TV may be actually anime online.

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