Ask John: What Shows Are Likely to Be Licensed Soon?

Question:
I don’t know if you’re allowed to comment on this question, but I was curious. What are you predictions for shows that will get licensed this convention season?

Answer:
(Ironically, although I composed this response last week, already since then two of my predictions have been officially announced as acquired for American release: Ah! My Goddess and Gredanier. For the sake of posterity and credibility, I’ll present this response the way I originally wrote it.)

It’s not so much that I can’t make licensing predictions as it’s virtually a conflict of professional interest for me. Considering that I’m influential in licensing decisions for AN Entertainment, it may not be wise for me to publish public trade information that may be useful to licensors that compete with AN Entertainment. However, I think this is a question with an answer that anime fans will find interesting and informative, and readers that frequent the “Ask John” column must realize by now that I’m not particularly restricted from discussing any particular anime related topic.

The American anime industry is famously tight lipped. There’s no way that I can possibly predict what titles will and won’t be announced for American release during this summer’s convention season. Furthermore, it would come as little surprise to me to see the number of acquisition announcements sharply decline this summer relative to the previous year or two. The number of strong candidates for American acquisition is decreasing, profits in the American anime industry aren’t increasing in proportion with licensing fees, and American anime DVD sales aren’t dramatically climbing annually as they were earlier in the decade. I can’t guess how many shows will be announced this summer, nor which ones will be announced. But I can identify a number of titles that I think will eventually make it to America, and explain why I think they’re strong candidates for American release. I think that a list like this may give anime fans some insight into some of the rationale and decisions that licensors consider when optioning titles for American release.

Nearly all of these titles are relatively recent ones because there are just too many factors involved in making predictions about older titles. And they’re presented in no particular order.

Several studios tend to produce anime that’s particularly successful in American release. Among those studios are Gainax, Gonzo, and Bee Train, which leads me to a number of titles. Aim for the Top! Gunbuster is long overdue for an American DVD release. The current Japanese release of Aim for the Top! 2 makes Gunbuster a current, relevant acquisition once again. Gainax has also got its latest ecchi maid comedy Kore ga Watashi no Goshujinsama on tap. Many American fans may complain about the redundancy of maid sex comedies, but French Maid outfits, sexual innuendo, nudity, and Gainax all in one package sounds like a recipe for success. Gainax’s Kono Minikukumo Utsukushii Sekai also remains unlicensed, and the mere name association “Gainax” immediately makes an anime title commercially viable in America, but it’s not a strong show and it didn’t make a big impact in the American fan community.

Virtually every title Gonzo Studios has ever released has been relatively quickly licensed for American release, so it’s probably safe to assume that Gankutsuou and Sunabozu will follow pattern. Gankutsuou is a technical marvel, and also a pretty good show. Sunabozu hasn’t been particularly popular in the American fan community, but it has a lot of similarities in style and tone to Trigun, which may allow it to capitalize on the same audience in America.

Since the debut of Noir, every Bee Train anime production has been licensed for American release except the current series Meine Liebe. With its gothic look and large cast of bishonen, the show seems like a strong candidate to ride to coat-tails of Geneon’s Kyou Kara Maoh and appeal to the growing female anime fan market that adores titles like Gravitation and Descendants of Darkness. Sukinamono wa Suki Dakara Shoganai seems like it’s just as likely to see American release for exactly the same reason. Bishonen sells.

While female viewers love beautiful men in anime, shoujo stories can still be profitable as well. In particular, the Peach Girl manga has been successful for TOKYOPOP, so some distributor may seek to capitalize on that established success by licensing the Peach Girl anime television series. Under similar circumstances, the Negima manga has been a major success in America, and its association with creator Ken Akamatsu and Love Hina is undoubtedly a strong marketing tool. Despite the fact that the Japanese television broadcast version of Negima has come under universal criticism for lapses in quality, the name recognition of the title alone will make it a worthwhile acquisition to an American licensor.

The Xenosaga, Viewtiful Joe, and Ah! My Goddess television series seem like guaranteed American releases because they already have an established market in America that’s eager to buy these shows.

Pure action anime are seemingly always in short supply, and they’re always popular with a segment of the American market. That’s why I’d guess that My Hime and Grenadier are good candidates for American release. Lots of attractive girls, lots of T&A, and lots of action virtually spells out lots of DVD sales.

Just as character oriented action anime aren’t that common, mature mecha anime aren’t really that common. Evangelion and RahXephon and Vandread and Nadesico have all been successful in America, so there’s reason to believe that Sokyuu no Fafner will likewise find strong support among American DVD buyers. Jinki Extend is also a potential American license since it’s also a robot action anime. But unlike Fafner, which falls into the high profile category of Evangelion and RahXephon and Gundam, Jinki Extend seems to fall into the second tier of less popular in America mecha anime that includes Gadguard and Gravion.

Geneon has licensed the Petit Cossette OAV series, but the two better “Gothic Lolita” anime, Tsukiyomi ~Moon Phase and Rozen Maiden, have not been announced for American release yet. Both titles have the “Gothic Lolita” aspect in their advantage, but at the same time both titles are “cute” anime. And for some reason the eludes me, American consumers typically don’t buy “cute” anime, regardless of how good it may be. Both of these shows are easy to market, and both may attract an audience that doesn’t typically buy anime. So in both cases, these may be wise acquisitions for a distributor seeking to expand its diversity and market share.

In one respect I’m inclined to hesitate predicting an American license for 2×2=Shinobuden because it’s a very Japanese comedy, yet that didn’t prevent Cromartie High School from being licensed for American release. Nin Nin ga Shinobuden is a fun and sexy show that deserves an American release; however it probably won’t ever become a big hit in America. Several years ago I would have said that this show was too Japanese to get picked up for American release, but in the current market, with fewer shows available for acquisition, I think a show like this is a more viable option than it would have been several years ago.

Finally, I think many American fans will be surprised if Pretty Cure is licensed for American release, but it would come as no shock to me. The show is a massive hit in Japan, which means that doubtlessly an American company will be willing to bet that it can find a similar success in America. The show is also directed by the director of cult hit action anime Dragonball Z and Air Master, which should establish some credibility to it in the minds of American consumers. Pretty Cure is exactly the type of show that could become the next Sailor Moon scale magical girl hit in America. Speaking of which, it would also come as little surprise to see Toei Animation itself announce a re-release of the Sailor Moon anime in America.