Ask John: What Will Anime be Like in the 20’s?

Question:
we were exposed to a number of good and bad anime for almost a decade that I called them hit and miss some eventually became American live action movies like Ghost In The Shell and Alita some good anime including yes the harem /fan service titles Freezing, High School DxD, Attack on Titan, Gargantia on the Verdurous Planet, Space Dandy, Redline, Garo series, Megalo Box, Akashic Records of Bastard Magic Instructor, Sekirei, Sword Art Online, The Rising of The Shield Hero, Overlord, Boruto, Black Clover, Seven Deadly Sins, GATE.

It appears that harem genre and ecchi type fan service is still the norm and a new kind of fantasy anime called isekai where characters are teleported to a fantasy world is gaining appeal with manga writers. What are you thoughts, John, and your prediction outlook for 2020? Are you one of those who yearn for 90’s nostalgia?

Answer:
I’m among the 7.8 billion people on earth who don’t know the future. But at least regarding anime I have enough experience and insight to hopefully make some presumptuous predictions. Historically anime has loosely evolved by the decade. Especially television anime productions from the 1960s, 1970s, 80s, 90s, and 2000s are typically fairly easy for experienced fans to distinguish based on visual characteristics. However, possibly because technology has finally caught up to inspiration, the technological design evolution of anime has slowed in recent years. The 2000-teens were the first decade of anime history in which animation quality and art design didn’t drastically evolve from the prior decade. Rather, changes and evolutions occurred more slowly and in greater isolation. I expect that trend to continue in the ’20s, although I anticipate that evolving production trends will become a bit more noticeable in the 20s compared to the teens.

On reflection, observers can delineate a few trends within ‘teens anime. While the concept of anime characters visiting an alternate world dates back to 1966’s Mahoutsukai Sally, the modern “isekai” trope launched in January & February 1983 when Mirai Keisatsu Urashiman & Seisenshi Dunbine premiered. The concept of being transported to an alternate world, and more specifically the concept of being reincarnated in a fantasy world, emerged as a popular anime trope about half-way through the ‘teens. Just as popular phases of anime including the prominence of super robot anime followed by real robot anime, harem anime in the early 2000s, moé anime around the later 2000s, and grim, deconstructionist magical girl anime in the early teens have all come and gone, I anticipate after the first year or two of the 20s the fascination with “isekai” anime will wane. I’m not saying that there won’t be any more isekai anime, only that there won’t be three or four such shows per season any longer.

Traditionally manga has been the primary inspiration for anime, but in recent years lite novels have increasingly vied as the primary source for anime adaptations. Seemingly Japan’s youth culture has realized and accepted the idea that the template for creating a successful new franchise is simply altering one significant word from the title of an existing success. For example, how many light novel franchises are there right now that are conceptually, “I was reborn as a [fill in the blank]”? And publishers want to continue promoting & selling books. So I do expect several more years of profligate anime adaptations of lite novels.

I would not be surprised to see an increased emphasis on mecha anime. The 1970s were the boom era for robot anime. The Real Robot anime style arose in the 1980s. More sophisticated and deconstructive mecha anime including Evangelion, Rahzephon, and Soukyuu no Fafner premiered in the decade from the mid 90s to the mid 2000s. But mecha anime has largely been marginalized over the past 15 years. With the world itself feeling more harsh, tense, conservative, and warlike, I anticipate that productions such as 2019’s Obsolete may become more frequent in the coming decade compared to how infrequent mecha anime were during the twenty-teens.

I also anticipate at least one more anime based on manga by Coolkyoushinja. Creators with multiple manga titles rarely ever have only one title adapted. Coolkyoushinja so far has had three manga series turned into anime: Danna ga Nani wo Itteiru ka Wakaranai Ken, Kobayashi-san Chi no Maid Dragon, and Komori-san wa Kotowarenai! But with several other titles in print, I’ll be surprised if 2020 doesn’t see the premiere of an anime based on perhaps Mononoke Sharing or Ojojojo. On a supplemental note, Satoko Kiyuduki’s GA: Geijutsuka Art Design Class manga was adapted into an anime in 2009, so I cling to the faint but fervent hope that eventually her Hitsugi Katsugi no Kuro ~Kaichu Tabi no Wa~ (“Shoulder-a-Coffin Kuro”) manga series will also get an anime adaptation.

Animation quality will likely continue to improve. During the past decade prominent franchises including the Fate series, Sword Art Online, Kill la Kill, One-Punch Man, Mob Psycho 100, Re:Zero, Megalobox, and Kimetsu no Yaiba elevated the standards for top-tier television animation quality compared to the 2000s. “Sakuga” anime has traditionally been the realm of theatrical budget productions, but increasingly viewers are seeing weekly TV series exhibiting higher frame rate animation and exceptional detail the like that hasn’t been seen since the golden age height of 80s esoteric anime.

Another trend which I anticipate increasing in the 20s is explicit anime. For example, nudity was commonplace in anime through the 1990s. But notably productions such as 2004’s Girls Bravo introduced digital steam censoring, and shortly later the “nazo no hikari” ray of light censoring. Censored mature content in broadcast anime arguably reached a peak around 2010 when broadcast series such as Seikon no Qwaser and the broadcast version of Corpse Party were so heavily censored that all television viewers saw was a black screen. However, recently satellite TV broadcasts of shows including Nande Koko ni Sensei ga? and Kandagawa Jet Girls have reduced censoring and even allowed nudity once again. Moreover, the WWWave Corporation launched the ComicFesta website in March 2017, streaming extended, uncensored pornographic anime such as 25-sai no Joshikousei and XL Joushi while shorter, censored episodes aired on broadcast television. Along the same lines, the popular mainstream shounen hit Kimetsu no Yaiba didn’t shy away from depicting intense, bloody violence, and rather frequently the Nanatsu no Taizai shounen anime has piled on unexpectedly grotesque graphic violence. After a decade or more of relatively tame and sanitized anime and censored broadcast anime, I anticipate broadcasters and anime studios to become emboldened in the 20s. Furthermore, as physical disc media sales continue to gradually diminish, the strategy of withholding graphic content for the BD version will become less effective. So broadcasters may instead turn to more graphic and explicit broadcasts as a means of securing viewer interest.

In addition to improving animation quality and more graphic content, I suspect that we’ll also continue to see an increasing diversification of anime styles in the coming decade. In fact, the 20’s may actually become a second anime golden age. Netflix has increasingly invested in anime production. While none of the Netflix original anime productions have exploded in popularity, I don’t foresee streaming broadcasters pulling back on anime content. In fact, the opposite may be likely. As exclusive streaming networks continue to proliferate in America, these pay networks will need exclusive content to attract and retain patrons. And anime fans tend to be very obsessive and compulsive about watching anime. Rather than trying to fund breakout smash hits, streaming networks may realize that funding niche, esoteric productions may be more effective at securing viewers. For example, director Masaaki Yuasa is a distinctly unconventional director, yet his Devilman Crybaby earned great acclaim. For example, just as countless viewers tuned into Disney Plus just to see The Mandalorian, how many otaku would tune into an exclusive streaming service for the opportunity to see a new original anime directed by Mamoru Oshii or even Hayao Miyazaki? Rather than trying to produce blockbusters, streaming networks funding anime may find more value in producing very eclectic, unusual, artistic & niche anime as well as anime based on subjects and sources that wouldn’t support adaptations for mainstream Japanese TV broadcast. The 80’s golden age occurred when producers funneled production money into anime, allowing creators and producers largely free reign. A similar trend re-occurring over the next few years would potentially benefit anime creators, global streaming networks, and international anime viewers.

In my observation, most contemporary otaku who refer to “90’s anime” are specifically referring to productions from 1995-2000. I had already been watching anime for years by then, so my nostalgia is greatest for 1980s anime. But Japanese kids who were children in the 1990s are making anime now, and more importantly, kids that grew up watching anime in the late 90s and early 2000s are now nostalgic young adults. In recent years some of the most acclaimed new anime productions have been revivals, including the new Jojo’s Bizarre Adventure anime, Gatchaman Crowds, and several of the recent Lupin III iterations. This coming year may finally see the release of the climax of Hideaki Anno’s Rebuild of Evangelion. A new Tenchi Muyo OVA series is on the way. Viewers have gotten new Sailor Moon, Yu Yu Hakusho, and Chuuka ichiban anime in recent years. Titles from the earlier 90s, especially long-running and very popular titles including Ah Megami-sama, Ranma 1/2, Silent Mobius, Oniisama E…, Akazukin Chacha, Ghost Sweeper Mikami, Jigoku Sensei Nube, Slayers, and Rurouni Kenshin may be ideal targets for reboot in the ’20s for new generations of viewers that weren’t alive when these anime originally aired.