Ask John: What Will Break Anime Out of its Current Slump?

Question:
I read somewhere that Evangelion ended a “slump” in anime and put Gainax on the map. Though this is highly subjective, I can’t help but feel that anime is experiencing a down period and I’m waiting for another ground breaking series. What are your thoughts?

Answer:
I think it’s first necessary to address the two sections of your question. The 1995 Evangelion television series is largely responsible for making “Gainax” an internationally recognized brand name, but it’s not as though Gainax was an unknown studio before 1995. In fact, Gainax was already a well established and highly respected production studio years before it created Evangelion. Within the hardcore international anime fan community, titles like Royal Space Force, Gunbuster, and Secret of Blue Water had “put Gainax on the map” many years before Evangelion achieved international mainstream recognition. Furthermore, it’s well documented that Evangelion was composed during a period of depression for creator Hideaki Anno. So Evangelion may have been Anno’s cathartic means of climbing out of a slump, but I refute the assertion that Evangelion brought Japan’s anime industry out of a slump. The year before Evangelion saw the release of highly successful titles including Slayers, Gundam W, the first Tenchi Muyo TV series, Fushigi Yuugi, Whisper of the Heart, Jubei Ninpucho, and Banipal Witt. So the 12 months preceding the debut of Evangelion had numerous examples of highly successful, popular and creative anime. I don’t think that a one year period that includes the premiers of the Slayers TV series and movie, the Gundam W and Rayearth television series, the second 3×3 Eyes OAV series, and Armitage the 3rd OAV series, and the Jubei Ninpucho and Whisper of the Heart movies can be accurately described as a low point in anime production, popularity, or quality.

Likewise there are a staggering number of anime titles available in Japan right now, and there are nearly a hundred new anime TV series, OAVs, and motion pictures scheduled for debut in Japan next month alone. In terms of sheer quantity, 2006 will be the most prolific year that Japan’s anime industry has ever had. In terms of creativity, recent titles including Mushishi, Honey & Clover, Paradise Kiss, Pale Cocoon, Karas, Kamichu, and Ergo Proxy clearly validate the past year as one with plenty of outstanding debuts. I can’t personally agree with the assertion that the current anime production industry is lapsing. Instead, I suspect that the perception that anime is currently stale is a result of misperception and growing complacency and familiarity with anime among American fans.

Evangelion was undeniably a groundbreaking international sensation. Cowboy Bebop was another, coming a few short years later. Gundam Wing also made a huge impact upon its American release. But it doesn’t seem like there’s been a break out success of that caliber in America recently. I must emphasize “seems” because, in fact, both Fullmetal Alchemist and Naruto have become highly successful Japanese imports to America. Bleach is also a highly anticipated American release that’s very popular in the American fan community. I would argue that Fullmetal Alchemist is at least as intelligent and literary as Evangelion, and it’s animated better than Evangelion was. But it doesn’t seem groundbreaking the way Evangelion did because American viewers are now more familiar with anime, so the novelty of a complex, intelligent drama isn’t as striking as it was a decade ago when Evangelion was a new import. Another difference is the fact that programs like Fullmetal Alchemist, Naruto, and Bleach are Japanese prime-time mainstream hits. They are shows targeted at mainstream Japanese viewers, not Japan’s hardcore otaku community. So it’s less surprising when shows like Naruto and Bleach become massively successful because they were always expected to become long running hits. Evangelion and Cowboy Bebop sprouted quietly, with minimal fanfare or advance anticipation, in the realm of shows for hard core fans and slowly blossomed into massive international sensations. So today’s anime industry may superficially appear to be at a low point because there aren’t any recent or current underdog programs that have seemingly appeared from nowhere and quickly shot to international success. The current shows that are tremendously successful are ones that were always expected to become successful, so their success is so unsurprising that we don’t acknowledge them as sudden surprise hits.

That’s particularly why it’s impossible to predict what the next breakout hit anime will be or when it will happen. I think it has to happen naturally. The new anime series Ergo Proxy seems like a show that was consciously developed to appeal to the American taste for dark, cyberpunk, post-modern anime, but a month after its debut, there seems to be very minimal interest in it within America’s hardcore fan community. On the other hand, Binchotan, a sweet, tranquil series that’s reportedly most popular among middle aged Japanese businessmen, has become surprisingly popular within America’s fan community. With roughly 80 new anime series premiering in Japan next month alone, and new Japanese anime TV seasons still forthcoming in July and October, there’s plenty of possibility and potential for this year to produce a new surprise success that seemingly appears out of nowhere and takes the world by storm.