Ask John: What Will the Next Masterpiece Anime Be?

Question:
I was wondering when do you think the next defining anime like Evangelion or Utena will come round, and who do you think will be the director of that show? I ask this question because it seems to me that Japan is currently concerned with pumping out quantity shows rather than quality shows.

Answer:
It’s very difficult to predict sleeper hits because, by their nature, they arrive unanticipated. Likewise, without taking into consideration the history of anime, it’s easy to criticize the current output of the industry needlessly harshly. If we look to the history of anime, the landmark shows have virtually always been the ones that took viewers by surprise. Within at least contemporary history, films like Akira and Five Star Stories were expected to be massively successful and revolutionary because they were the product of such massive budgets and major studio backing. On the other hand, Gainax Studio’s landmark productions of Wings of Honneamise, Secret of Blue Water, and Shin Seiki Evangelion were all surprise hits. Royal Space Force was the first feature film from an animation studio that was essentially an unknown group of private fans turned professional. It’s awe inspiring animation and emotionally inspiring story created a milestone in anime history. The 1991 Fushigi no Umi no Nadia (Nadia of the Mysterious Seas) television series again defied expectations by revolutionizing the accepted standard of production quality for television animation. Nadia was the first anime TV series to feature production quality comparable to higher budget OAV releases. Even up until 1995 Gainax Studio was a small and overlooked production company. Evangelion, as we all know, went on to become one of the most successful anime series in Japanese history, but its often cited minimal production budget suggests that it was never anticipated to be the outstanding show that it was. Likewise, Shoujo Kakumei Utena, which premiered two years later, was highly anticipated by a very select core of fans, but no one would have predicted that it would be the masterpiece that it is. Considering that Utena was a product of a director whose previous work was highlighted by children’s shows like Kingyo Chuuihou and Sailor Moon, no one expected the mature and symbolic surrealist fantasy of Utena. And then, the following year, Cowboy Bebop premiered so quietly in Japan that in fact during its initial broadcast, only half of the series was actually aired. It wasn’t until the second, 1998 broadcast that all 26 episodes of Cowboy Bebop actually aired on Japanese television. And even the recent fan favorite action drama from last year, Noir, received almost no advance publicity and had very little public recognition before its premier.

So while many of recent history’s most outstanding productions have debuted with little fanfare and risen to fame, many of the most highly anticipated anime of recent history have turned out to be disappointments of varying degree. After the stellar success of Ghost in the Shell, there was eager anticipation for the next theatrical anime film from creator Masamune Shirow. That follow-up film was Gundress, about which the less is said the better. After two years in production, Shouji Kawamori’s highly anticipated follow-up to Macross Plus and Escaflowne was Chikkyu Shoujo Arjuna, a series that has suffered immense criticism from fans, and is only now, nearly 2 years after its Japanese debut, beginning to receive the critical acclaim it so deserves. And after heavy promotion and a stunning promotional video revealed at a Japanese press conference earlier this year, Studio Gonzo’s anime TV series Kiddy Grade has so far failed to live up to its promised potential.

It’s easy to say that the current anime industry is concerned with quantity more than quality based on the sheer amount of anime that’s available now. It’s also easy for Western fans to criticize the Japanese market because, with the recent advent of digital fansubbing, Western fans now have significantly greater, and more diverse access to current anime than ever before and thereby a wider spectrum to criticize. However, an objective reflection will reveal that no period of Japanese history has ever been a fabulous era during which all the anime produced were original, creative and artistic treasures. The anime industry has always equally weighed art and commerce, and the history of anime has always been characterized by at least an equal balance between quantity and quality. If anything, quality has always played a catch-up game with quantity throughout the 50 year history of anime. With anywhere from 30 to 75 anime TV series on Japanese television annually for the past 30 years, how many of those years have managed to turn out more than a handful of exceptional programs?

I hope I don’t seem like I’m avoiding answering the question, however, I believe that history confirms that this is not a question that can be easily answered. So often throughout the history of anime, productions that were highly touted and anticipated have either not lived up to their impossibly high expectations, or have merely fulfilled viewer expectations. Examples of the former have already been mentioned. For an example of the later, look no farther than the Ghost in the Shell TV series: certainly a masterpiece, but if it were anything less it would be a shocking disappointment. So the Ghost in the Shell TV series is hardly a surprise breakthrough. Upcoming titles like the R.O.D. television series, Wolf’s Rain, and L/R seem to be the most promising titles on the distant horizon. The upcoming new Tetsuwan Atom television series, and the upcoming Gunparade March television series based on the award winning and massively popular Playstation game may both turn out to be surprisingly impressive programs. However, the anime that are most likely to show us something totally original and unexpected and wonderful, like the current Haibane Renmei television series from first time director Yoshitoshi Abe, are the programs that will sneak up on us and catch us by surprise- not the ones that we see coming from months and miles away.