Ask John: Which 2007 Anime Are Likely to Reach America?

Question:
Of the presently unlicensed anime TV series that debuted in Japan last year, which do you think have a reasonably good chance of being picked up for North American distribution? Which ones would you say are sure-fire pickups that the majors like Funimation & ADV would likely vie for? Which are the more niche-oriented but potentially profitable properties that smaller companies like Media Blasters or Nozomi could be interested in acquiring?

Answer:
Anime licensing is a complex field because it’s subject to numerous conditions, including licensing fees and royalties, the financial status of the potential licensee, the experience and status of the potential licensee, the international sales potential of the title in question, the interests of the licensor, the goals of the Japanese copyright owner or licensor, and the difficulty and speed of licensing negotiations. These factors make accurately predicting American anime acquisitions quite difficult. I think that my personal record of predicting domestic acquisitions has been fairly good, but there are always acquisitions, such as AD Vision’s recent announcement of Kiba, which I wouldn’t have ever guessed. So, to address this question, I’ll provide my personal, objective opinions, based upon external conditions rather than my own personal wishes. Some of 2007’s anime titles which I think have a strong potential for American release were shows that I personally didn’t like. There are also 2007 titles that I’d very much like to see reach America which probably won’t.

Some anime series are virtually assured of reaching America. All of Kyoto Animation’s original anime works have been brought to America except Clannad. Considering that precedent, and the fact that the very similar Air and Kanon series have reached America, Clannad is a near certainty to receive an official American release.

Likewise, nearly every production that Gonzo has ever made has been released in America. Dragonaut ~ The Resonance is likely to follow suit because its combination of sexy women, slick animation design, and sci-fi action is sure to appeal to American consumers. Gonzo’s Romeo x Juliet is also likely to eventually reach America for two reasons. It’s a Gonzo production. It’s also a title with American name recognition that American viewers will be able to relate to.

Just based on precedent, other 2007 Gonzo titles including Getsumen Toheiki Mina and Master of Epic have a better chance of reaching America than many other anime series, but my instinct is that these later two shows are unlikely to have significant American market potential.

Anime series which are tremendously successful in Japan are often considered ideal and desirable for American release. The Japanese success of shows including Bamboo Blade, Mobile Suit Gundam OO, and Hayate no Gotoku! make these titles probable American licenses.

American anime viewers tend to be partial toward mature, violent, sophisticated, and supernatural themed anime series, so Baccano, Heroic Age, Kaibutsu Oujo, Murder Princess, Ghost Hound, Skull Man, and Zombie-Loan all stand out as strong candidates for American acquisition.

Titles that already have an established American audience or franchise may be likely acquisitions. Director Koichi Mashimo’s Noir and Madlax have already reached America, so the third series in his “girls with guns” trilogy, El Cazador, may be a probable American release. The Ikkitousen franchise is popular in Japan, and the first anime series has been successful in America, so Ikkitousen ~Dragon Destiny~ may follow. Viz distributes the Love Com manga and live action feature, so a domestic release of the anime may be a logical next step.

Theatrical features tend to perform well in America because consumers like purchasing single, complete DVD releases that don’t entail any committment to buy future volumes. The quality of the films, and the American interest in anime feature films, may encourage a domestic release of both Evangelion 1.0 and Stranger.

Finally, domestic licensors including Media Blasters and Nozomi Entertainment have a tendency to persue quirky and acclaimed titles, which may lead to eventual US releases for shows such as Minami-ke, Moyashimon, Sayonara Zetsubou Sensei, and Denno Coil.