Ask John: Which of This Month’s New Anime Will Become Popular in America?

Question:
In October, Japan sees the season for a lot of new anime shows appearing. I was wondering which shows you anticipate among them, John-sama. I believe that not a few of them would appeal even to anime fans overseas, including the renowned Death Note, Pumpkin Scissors by GONZO, Buso Renkin by the original author of Kenshin, vampire-featuring Black Blood Brothers, and Kanon by Kyoto “Haruhi” Animation. Do you mind if I ask your personal view?

Answer:
Extending this year’s record setting number of new anime titles, a staggering number of new series are premiering on Japanese television this month: nearly 50! That number increases when this month’s three internet broadcast series (Ayu Myu Gekijou, Bakumatsu Kikansetsu Irohanihoheto, Summon Night TV) and OVAs are included. At the time I’m composing this response, I’ve been fortunate enough to be able to watch roughly half of this month’s premiers. I’m regretful that I haven’t had enough time or opportunity to watch them all. But I’m pleased to report that among the shows I’ve watched, none have been particularly bad; some are better than others, but none have been especially below average in story or animation quality. I can’t be sure that I’ll predict exactly how America’s fan community will recieve these new shows, but I’m willing to speculate.

Death Note is the highest profile debut of the season and arguably the most anticipated new series of the fall. Its first episode lives up to its anticipation. Madhouse obviously knows that Death Note is a high profile title, and has appropriately put a lot of effort into the show. The first episode’s visual design – color, character design, cinematography, animation quality- are all striking. The story, in particular the way the story has been paced for television, is involving and captivating. Death Note is unquestionably the fall’s “must watch” program.

Kanon is the other highly anticipated debut among America’s hardcore anime fans, probably largely based on the strength of Kyoto Animation’s earlier popular Full Metal Panic: Second Raid, Air, and Suzumiya Haruhi no Yuutsu productions. Thankfully, the new Kanon remake lives up to expectations. Not only is it attractive looking, to be expected from a high profile “KyoAni” production, it also has a better adaptation that the 2002 series. The slower pace of this new series allows the story and its characters to unfold naturally, unlike the the rather crude earlier series. Similar to other dating sim anime that have become popular in America’s fan community, such as Air and Kimi ga Nozomu Eien, the new Kanon has already gained foothold in America’s fan community, but I don’t expect the show to become a significant mainstream American hit.

Over the past few years a bit of a Gonzo backlash has developed in the American fan community. The trendy distaste for Gonzo productions is partly fueled by the studio’s breakthrough success in America, and is also partly justified by the studio’s productions. Many of Gonzo’s works are flashy, but ultimately shallow and compromised. But Gonzo’s excellent works are outstanding. Based on its first episode, Pumpkin Scissors may be one of Gonzo’s periodic brilliant productions. The balance of exciting tension and humor that lightens the mood is perfect; the characters are individual and appealing; the story is unique. If it’s able to maintain the quality of the first episode, I think that Pumpkin Scissors has the right combination of qualities necessary to become a major hit in America.

Negima!? is very difficult to predict. The 2005 series has been popular with American viewers even though many of them admit that it’s not very good. The first episode of the second TV series seems to be a tremendous improvement, but it bears the unmistakable artistic style of the Shaft animation studio. Previous Shaft works like the Yamamoto Yohko TV series, Paniponi Dash, and Tsukuyomi have small cult followings within the American fan community, but they’re not widely popular. I can’t guess if the Negima name will prevail and draw viewers, of if the unusual cinematic style of the show will drive American viewers away.

The first episode of Busou Renkin felt very much to me like the early episodes of Bleach. The series balances a dark story with slapstick comedy. Much like Bleach, this may take a little while to take off, but I do anticipate it becoming a fan standard.

Having covered the high points, I’ll address the rest of my list with more brevity.

Black Blood Brothers is technically not an October premier, as it premiered in September. So far, with five episodes, the series hasn’t made a big splash with American fans. Vampire action anime may be popular in America, but the lighthearted tone of Black Blood Brothers may give it less weight in the minds of American viewers.

The first episode of 009-1 was smart, exciting, and very stylistic. But it’s very reminiscent of the 2001 Cyborg 009 revival which has been almost entirely ignored by American audiences.

The fan response I’ve seen to Asatte no Houkou has been positive, but Kasimasi, a similar romantic drama with a twist, did not become a big hit in America’s fan community, and I expect this show to follow suit.

Black Lagoon The Second Barrage seems to be slightly more intense than the first season, which is a good thing. This series has been popular in America, but I think it’s not quite as well recieved as it could be because it’s an action drama rather than a fully exhilerating action series.

I’m surprised that there’s been so little anticipation for Code Geass in America’s fan community considering how highly promoted the series has been in Japan and the involvement of CLAMP as character designers. Its first episode has the feel of Sunrise’s 2005 series Cluster Edge and the current series Innocent Venus. Like Cluster Edge, the story is interepersed with occasional silly or absurd situations or humor, and like Cluster Edge, Code Geass includes a tremendously powerful psychic. The post-apocalyptic military regime setting feels very similar to Innocent Venus. The production quality of Code Geass is very good, and the “nightmare” mecha designs are unique and interesting. However, if the relative popularity of Cluster Edge and Innocent Venus are any indication, Code Geass probably won’t make big waves in America.

The first episode of D.Gray-man showed brief flashes of inspired creativity, but most of the episode felt unoriginal and poorly scripted. However, despite its weaknesses, since this is a high profile Shonen Jump title, it may earn an significant American fan following.

The Galaxy Angel anime has never been as popular in America as it is in Japan, and all of the reactions I’ve seen to Galaxy Angelune, including my own, treat this new series as less interesting and funny than the series with the first cast.

The first episode of Ghost Hunt is mysterious and involving. However, mystery and dramatic supernatural investigation anime seem to rarely succeed in America.

The new Kujibiki Unbalance looks and feels very different from the Genshiken bonus OVAs. There’s nothing particularly bad about this new series, but there’s also very little in it that’s likely to appeal to most American viewers.

The look, tone, and action of Mamoru-kun ni Megami no Shukufuku wo! all remind me of Gokujo Seitokai and Inukami, neither of which have been particularly popular with American viewers. I’m afraid that American viewers may also not flock to the Project A-ko with shotakon romance theme of the show.

If Pumpkin Scissors is Gonzo’s hit of the season, Red Garden may be their overlooked series. The unusual character designs may attract some, but will probably turn off more viewers, and the first episode’s character introductions felt sterile and superficial. My personal impression of the first episode of Red Garden is that it’s an admirable, but not entirely successful artistic experiment.

Shijou Saikyou no Deshi Kenichi looks and feels like a show from the mid 1990s. I don’t mean that as praise or criticism; it’s merely an observation. That impression alone may be enough to make American viewers ignore this martial arts comedy that’s seemingly light on the martial arts.

Historical fiction and exorcist boy anime including Harukanaru Toki no Naka de and Tactics have not been highly popular in America, and Shonen Onmyouji fits snugly into that style.

Similarly, the Souten no Ken manga has never been particularly popular in America, so I don’t expect its anime adaptation to perform well over here. Masculine but idiotic anime including Fighting Beauty Wulong and Zaizen Jotaro have been virtually ignored in America. Souten no Ken compliments those shows well, which is another reason why I don’t think American viewers will watch it.

Sumomomomomomo reminds me of Ranma 1/2. Both series tell the story of strong martial artists who engage their children to be married without their kids’ knowledge or consent. Both series are martial arts comedies that are light on martial arts and heavy on comedy. I enjoyed the first episode of Sumomomomomomo very much, but it may be too cute to find favor with a wide American audience.

Tokimeki Memorial ~Only Love~ may be one of the surprise hits of the season. I expected a serious, charming, slice of life drama like To Heart or Boys Be, but TokiMemo Only Love turned out to be a very amusing parody of school romance dramas. Parody anime tends to go over well with American fans, and recent school romance dramas including Shuffle and Da Capo have found a small but loyal fan base in America.

The same audience that has watched Da Capo and Shuffle will enjoy Yoake Mae Yori Ruri Iro Na ~Crescent Love~. The few responses to the show I’ve seen among American fans have been positive, and the show itself is good natured while hinting at the possibility of becoming darker and more serious like Shuffle. I don’t expect “Yoake” to become a big hit in America, but it may develop a small fan following.