Ask John: Will Air Be Profitable In America?

Question:
Do you think that ADV has a chance of making a dime from their license of Air? It must have been expensive, and it just doesn’t seem to be a title with much appeal in the American market.

Answer:
I’m not particularly surprised at all by AD Vision’s acquisition of the Air anime. AD Vision has always concentrated on licensing trendy, contemporary, rather “otaku oriented” programs. The Air TV anime franchise neatly fits into AD Vision’s chosen niche because it’s a very contemporary looking show from the current hot production studio (Kyoto Animation), and it has a very devoted cult following in Japan. I’m aware that this observation may imply some critique, so allow me to clarify that it’s not intended. I haven’t personally watched all of the Air animation because the first two-thirds of the TV series that I did watch didn’t sustain my interest. The Air television animation is attractive looking and periodically very well animated. But I don’t believe that it’s an exceptional series because it may have a great deal of narrative exposition (back story), but it doesn’t exhibit a great deal of characterization or depth of character. The cast does not consist of characters with three-dimensional personalities that naturally interact with each other and grow and change. Instead, the cast consists of artificial characters that exist solely to fill roles and participate in an emotionally manipulative drama. Considering the fan following for the Air franchise, this artificiality isn’t a bad thing. It’s simply a literary format that appeals to a select audience.

That’s precisely why I have serious doubts about Air’s potential to be profitable in America. Domestic releases of anime based on visual novel games including Rumbling Hearts, To Heart, and Green Green don’t seem to have been exceptionally successful in America, and I suspect that Air may be the most expensive such license to reach America yet. Air is a romantic drama, which places it in a genre with limited American market potential. The series may sell well to its existing American fans, but it’s not a title or genre likely to attract a significant number of new fans. As a romantic drama, Air is unlikely to attract new consumers through name recognition or appearances. It’s also not likely to receive any significant mainstream advertising via major television broadcast. There are probably several thousand hardcore American anime fans who already know and love the Air anime. Many of those fans will purchase the show upon its domestic release, but I don’t expect the series to sell well outside of that established market.

Given the popularity of the Air franchise in Japan, the anime was probably not cheap to license. Having to negotiate distribution rights with two different distributors for the television and movie animation probably dramatically increased the cost of licensing the franchise also. Although I have no specific “insider information” to base my speculation on, I have an instinctual feeling that on a purely economic level, AD Vision may lose money on the Air license. I don’t believe that any domestic licensor could possibly sell enough Air DVDs in America to make the title profitable. However, AD Vision may still be able to profit from the acquisition in various ways. Merely acquiring distribution rights to this high profile franchise brings valuable attention to AD Vision. Regardless of profitability, a catalog of high profile titles helps establish a valuable corporate reputation and recognition. Furthermore, I’m sure that there are AD Vision staff members who are very excited and pleased to have acquired this fan favorite franchise. Based only on my own instincts, I doubt that the Air anime will be financially profitable in America, but AD Vision’s acquisition may generate significant intangible value in the form of support from the fan community and interest in the company.