Ask John: Will Air Gear, Ouran Host, or XXXHolic Reach American TV First?

Question:
Which anime do you see being released here on American TV first: Air Gear, xxxHolic TV, or Ouran High School Host Club?

Answer:
This is a bit of a fun, speculative question. The future may prove me wrong, but I think that these three series are characteristic, and distinct enough to make prediction very possible. Air Gear, I think, has the most potential for American television broadcast among the three titles. Ouran High School Host Club has the smallest chance of ever airing on American television.

If the question asked which of the three shows would be the first to be licensed, I’d say that XXXholic is likely to be the first to reach America because FUNimation has already licensed the XXXHolic motion picture. So it’s only a short step for FUNimation to also acquire the television series. But the characteristics most desirable for television broadcast may not be exactly the same as those for American DVD release.

Air Gear is an attractive looking and easily marketable adventure series filled with sexy looking characters on rollerblades. The show can easily be marketed to both male and female viewers as trendy, cutting edge entertainment. Considering that the Air Gear manga has been licensed by Del Rey, the title will benefit from major national exposure. Air Gear is a show that could find a comfortable home on virtually any American television network.

XXXholic is an atmospheric, gothic drama filled with Japanese cultural conventions, references, and imagery. It’s a show with little sex appeal, no testosterone, and no slapstick comedy or outrageous humor. Its closest relative on American television is Witch Hunter Robin, which was not particularly successful on the Cartoon Network. Considering that XXXholic has much less obvious appeal to mainstream American viewers than Witch Hunter Robin, I can’t envision any American television network viewing the show as a strong potential. XXXholic is a show which may perform well on DVD, where it can reach its core audience of viewers interested in languidly paced, animated supernatural drama. But there’s nothing in XXXholic which makes it immediately evident as a strong candidate for success on mainstream American television broadcast.

The same critique applies to Ouran Host. The series is a shoujo comedy drama filled with bishonen and soft, pastel colors. It’s clearly not the sort of crude humor or action/adventure that’s popular with the young adult male viewers that make up the majority audience of Adult Swim, G4, & Spike. America’s major networks have refused to accept cross-dressing animated characters in Sailor Moon and Pokemon, so I doubt they’ll be receptive to Ouran Host.

In effect, American anime distributors consider the quality of the show when considering potential licenses. But TV broadcast must consider its viewer demographics above the quality of programming. A television network may broadcast an absolute masterpiece, but if it doesn’t interest the network’s majority audience, the broadcast will inevitably fail. Air Gear ranks lowest among these three programs in terms of artistic, cinematic, and literary quality, but its characteristics are far more appealing to average American television viewers than those of either XXXholic or Ouran Host, which are programs that appeal to very particular audiences. Air Gear has an intrinsic potential for success among mainstream American viewers while XXXholic and Ouran Host are very foreign and highly inaccessible programs for average, mainstream Americans.