Ask John: Will America’s Anime Industry Bounce Back?

Question:
Do you think the anime industry will bounce back from the recent drop in anime in America?

Answer:
Based on available evidence, I don’t see any reason to expect America’s anime industry to rapidly expand, once again, to the scale it was at during 2003 and 2004; however, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. There are presently fewer anime distributors in America than there were five years ago. Fewer titles are being licensed for official American release. Domestic anime DVD sales are down and show little sign of drastically increasing. There’s no break-through anime title in America right now that is attracting attention to the anime medium.

But rather than see the current American anime market as descending an inescapable download slope, I want to believe that the American anime market is simply fluctuating in search of a sustainable market level. The domestic anime market may have been worth an estimated $550 million in 2003, but that level may have been an overinflated bubble engorged by the Pokemon craze and an over-aggressive domestic anime distribution industry.

While domestic anime DVD sales have declined, they’re not entirely disappearing because there is, and always will be a niche market of American consumers that want to purchase and own legitimate commercial anime. The health of America’s anime distribution industry may be dependant upon the number of American consumers willing to pay for legitimate anime releases steadily growing, but America’s most flexible distributors will adjust to changes in the domestic market. In fact, the current contraction afflicting America’s anime industry may ultimately prove beneficial for anime in America.

Reportedly anime licensing costs are decreasing as a result of American and Japanese distributors recognizing the practical market for anime in America. Decreasing licensing costs will allow domestic distributors to satisfy fan demands for anime in season sets for cheaper prices. A smaller anime industry may also force American distributors to concentrate on integrity and quality instead of relying on sheer quantity of titles and releases. While industry growth is preferable and necessary, long-term sustainability is more important to America’s anime industry than a brief blaze of popularity followed by a burn out.