Ask John: Will Dragonball: Evolution Be a Hit?
Question:
with Dragonball Evolution the movie coming out in 4 months is this movie going to do any good as Speed Racer, if you look Speed Racer budget was $120 Million and in the end its gross revenue was only $97 Million, Dragonball budget is going to be $100 Million and with the trailer everyone is looking at on youtube, this movie may end up on the worst movie list of 2009 so do you see Dragonball Evolution making over $25 Million on its open?
Answer:
I’ve now watched the first officially released Dragonball: Evolution trailer a few times, and my opinion of it isn’t changing. On the positive side, I’m not brewing a gradually growing distaste for it. On the negative side, my desire to see the film isn’t growing either. It’s obvious to anyone familiar with the Dragonball franchise that this American film bears as much similarity to its inspiration as the 1993 Super Mario Bros. live action movie reflected its source material. Apart from the obvious and necessary revisions, such as making Son Goku a teen instead of a small boy and changing the origins of both Piccolo Daimaoh and the dragonballs, the movie appears to have some troubling American inflections including a lack of convincing martial arts, and possibly most importantly, a change in Goku’s personality. Rather than the self-confident and eager Son Goku of the original Japanese version, the live action film’s Goku appears to be very uncertain of himself. The modified seeming introduction of hoi-poi capsules (specifically, Bulma’s motorcycle), Goku’s presumably climactic use of the “kame hame ha” attack, Roshi’s penchant for Hawaiian shirts, and the slow motion kick to the face that resembles a comic book illustration all suggest a degree of subtle respect for the film’s comic book origins. But the general lack of recognizable similarity to the Dragon Ball manga and anime have me, and seemingly most American fans anxious and worried over this film.
The comparison to this year’s Speed Racer movie may be apt. During its domestic opening weekend, Speed Racer grossed only 18.5 million despite expectations for a strong premiere and a massive promotional campaign. This year’s well reviewed foreign inspired The Forbidden Kingdom opened at 21.4 million. Chow Yun Fat’s last American family oriented action film, 2003’s Bulletproof Monk, opened at only $8.6 million. None of director James Wong’s previous three directorial efforts have exceeded a $19 million opening weekend. Precedents like these, and the widespread negative buzz surrounding this film in the American anime and film fan communities suggest that the movie is unlikely to achieve a $25 million domestic opening weekend. However, the possible saving grace for the film may be the recent surprise success of the teen romantic vampire film Twilight. Strong support from fans of the original novels gave the film, which didn’t have an especially large pre-release promotional campaign, a staggering $69.6 million opening weekend and a gross of over $140 million domestically in just two weeks of release. In other words, we can’t dismiss the possibility of Dragonball: Evolution earning unexpected grosses from ticket sales generated by curious fans and mainstream viewers that enjoy the anime but don’t demand a faithful adaptation.
Twentieth Century Fox apparently believes in the strength and potential of this film, as the studio has reportedly already set plans in motion for a sequel. Furthermore, last month Fox advanced the domestic release date of the film by two days, from a planned opening on April 10th to an opening on April 8th. This move could be a sign of Fox’s faith in the movie. It could also be an effort to give the film an extra long opening window, allowing it to accumulate a bigger opening weekend gross. Director James Wong’s track record as a director hasn’t been stellar, but it has been consistent, and his movies have been profitable. While I’m hesitant to praise Dragonball: Evolution on the basis of a couple trailers and advance images, I haven’t yet seen anything about the film that would suggest its status as one of the upcoming year’s worst movies. Personally, I’m expecting a thoroughly mediocre picture with superficial similarities to Akira Toriyama’s Dragon Ball – not a disastrous cinematic train wreck nor an enthralling adaptation. I’m not a box office analyst, although I do follow the Hollywood movie trends as much as anyone. My personal prediction is a $15 million opening weekend and ultimately an American box office of around $50 million, largely generated from mainstream American family audiences rather than hardcore anime fans. I anticipate that the movie will perform better overseas than it does in America, and with home video receipts, the film should easily turn profitable.
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If you film it, they will come.
The film is likely to do well because it has a strong, rececnt history in the United States. The fact that FUNimation keeps re-releasing DVD sets of “the greatest action anime of all time” as old Toonami spots used to say… will certainly contribute. That and sheer curiosity. More people are curious about how a DBZ movie will turn out than they will be about something farther grounded in reality, such as SPEED RACER.
The Wachowski’s SPEED RACER was an incredible film, but the audience familiar with the title has diminished remarkably over the years.
That said, the film will emphasize the cool-factor while leveraging it’s base as an “adaptation” and nothing more. Such is hollywood.
Now, for the AKIRA film in another two years…. that’s another story.
Aaron, you’re unfairly equatiing the popularity of Dragonball the anime ith the popularity it could have as a live action film. Most American moviegoers don’t know a thing about Dragonball, and those who do know about Dragonball don’t recognize most of this cast.
So I think John’s analysis of how it will do is correct. If the reviews and buzz are in favor for this film (at the most, I think reviews will be mixed) then it’ll make about 20 mil.
I am positive about this film, but I’m also realistic about how it’ll do.
Even if most American moviegoers aren’t familiar with the franchise, the innumerable children, teenagers, and young adults who grew up with the program; which annually drives several hundred thousand dollars of cash into the pockets of their licensors; will be enough. Dragonball Z is more than just an animated series… it’s graciously infected areas of card collecting and action figures with remarkable success.
What I’m saying is that I understand the executive producer’s thought process when he says to himself that a DBZ movie is not only an interesting idea, but an interesting idea that couldn’t have been better timed. It’s a bit of a disservice to think that a children’s program with such a consistently impressive reach for so many years won’t turn some sort of profit. There’s a difference between trying to revitalize a property that’s been in the back of a fanboy’s mind for a decade and a half; and trying to capitalize on the success of a property both you and your kids, or your friend’s kids are already familiar with.
Hey, everyone. I hope I’m not being presumtuous posting here, since everyone seems to be giving paragraphs and paragraphs of text.
I think that this has a decent chance to make money, and some people are going to go just because it is called Dragonball. I think a lot of fans are dissapointed because this is clearly going to be nothing like the actual dragonball.
Whether this makes good money depends on the reaction, people will come either because it is called Dragonball or because they are giving a martial arts flick a chance. On the other hand people will NOT come because they saw the trailer and thus have seen that this is not what they wanted and hoped for.
Honestly, I hope this movie fails miserably because someone is trying to make money off a franchise that they obviously either hate or know nothing about.