Ask John: Will Pumpkin Scissors, Code Geass, and Angel Heart Get Licensed?

Question:
Do you think any of these anime will be licensed:

Pumpkin Scissors is from Gonzo and Geneon’s name is in the credits, so either Geneon or Funimation could pick it up.

Code Geass. The design is from Clamp, and its from Sunrise. Bandai Ent. used to always pick up their shows.

Angel Heart. I was a big fan of City Hunter and although I believe that ADV Films’ releases of the series did not do well, they eventually released the sets. Any chance anybody could pick up this anime? (Glass Heart is really pretty too.)

Answer:
Among these three titles, I’m going to predict that two of them are certain American licenses and one is a remote possibility. Actually, in order, I think that Pumpkin Scissors is certain to eventually see American release; Code Geass is a very likely candidate for American release; and Angel Heart is a long shot, although still a potential. Allow me to explain my reasoning.

Animation by Gonzo and sponsorship or distribution by Geneon don’t necessarily guarantee an American release, but both are strong portents. Out of the 41 anime productions released so far that Gonzo credits to itself on its Japanese homepage, only five have not yet been confirmed as licensed for North American release: Pumpkin Scissors, Getsumen Toheiki Mina, RED GARDEN, Sky Girls, and NHK ni Yokoso! In fact, I’d say that even those five titles have a relatively strong chance of eventually being licensed for domestic release. As of the time I’m writing this response, based on the anime that Gonzo has actually released to the public, roughly 88% of all Gonzo produced anime gets licensed for American release. So the odds of any Gonzo production eventually appearing in America are quite good.

The percentage for anime produced or distributed by Geneon is not quite as high, but examination still provides a lot of reasonable speculation. There are anime titles distributed by Geneon in Japan which have, I suspect, very little chance of ever seeing American release, including titles like Otogi Jushi Akazukin, Kirarin Revolution, and Patalliro Saiyuki. There are also many titles currently distributed by Geneon of Japan which are split among a number of American licensors. AD Vision has Comic Party Revolution and This Ugly and Beautiful World. Central Park Media distributes Geneon Japan’s Now and Then, Here and There. Media Blasters has Geneon Japan’s Gakuen Heaven, Gunparade March, Joshikosei, and Muteki Kanban Musume. Right Stuf distributes Piano and To Heart. And Geneon Japan’s Strange Dawn was licensed for American release by Urban Vision. So the fact that Pumpkin Scissors is a Gonzo and Geneon co-production makes it a very likely candidate for American release, although exactly which American distributor may eventually end up with it is less easy to predict.

Apart from being a Gonzo production, Pumpkin Scissors has a tone and style reminiscent of Trigun, making it particularly suited to the tastes of American viewers. Code Geass is slightly more difficult to predict. America’s Bandai Entertainment and Bandai Visual have a policy of localizing titles which Bandai distributes in Japan, and most anime affiliated with Clamp in virtually any way seem to perform well in America. (Clamp provided the character designs for Code Geass.) Furthermore, Code Geass is steadily turning into a cult hit in Japan. Shows that become especially successful in Japan’s fan community often have a stronger probability of being licensed for American release. Code Geass is a sci-fi, political, mecha show vaguely similar to titles like Gundam, Crest of the Stars, Eureka Seven, and Glass Fleet, which have had a lukewarm reception within America’s fan community. That may delay or hamper an American release, but I doubt that the show’s genre will entirely prevent it from reaching American audiences.

Angel Heart is the wild card of the trilogy. Angel Heart is a sequel to City Hunter, and City Hunter has never performed well in America, in either anime or manga form, despite being a massive success in Japan. Furthermore, Angel Heart is the longest of these three titles, having twice as many episodes as either Code Geass or Pumpkin Scissors. Simply by virtue of being a significantly longer series, Angel Heart will be a significantly more expensive acquisition than a shorter show. Since it’s a relatively straightforward action drama, Angel Heart may be easy to market to American consumers, and easy for American viewers to watch. That works in favor of the series eventually being licensed. Furthermore, many of America’s most prolific licensors have recently shown a penchant for acquiring niche market titles and shows with uncertain market potential. AD Vision has acquired Nerima Daikon Brothers, Best Student Council, and Keroro Gunso. Media Blasters has acquired titles like Joshikosei, Kasimasi, and Muteki Kanban Musume. Geneon distributes Ichigo Marshmallow, Kamichu, and Zipang. FUNimation has licensed Kimi ga Nozomu Eien and Mushishi. This recent trend of domestic licensors picking up less obvious licenses may work in favor of Angel Heart. But at the same time companies like AD Vision and Media Blasters seem to be obviously carefully selecting their licenses based on a calculation of cost versus market potential. I suspect that Angel Heart’s licensing cost compared to its American market potential may not be very favorable.

I think that all three of these shows are of respectable quality and deserve an opportunity to reach American viewers. I’m completely confident that Pumpkin Scissors will receive an American license sooner, rather than later, and I’m fairly confident that Code Geass will also eventually be licensed for domestic release, if it hasn’t been licensed already. I’m not prepared to predict an American release for Angel Heart, but I won’t be especially surprised if it happens.