Ask John: Will the American Release of Haruhi Suzumiya Be Successful?

Question:
Now that it’s official that The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya will be coming to the States in early 2007, are there any fears that the series won’t live up to the hype?

Answer:
I think that there shouldn’t be any fears over Suzumiya Haruhi (the Japanese family name first pronunciation is incontrovertibly ingrained in my subconscious) not living up to expectations in America because there shouldn’t be inflated expectations for the series’ American success. Time may prove me incorrect, but I believe that the Suzumiya Haruhi anime does not have the same potential for success in America that it has had in Japan. Suzumiya Haruhi has been such a staggering success in Japan, and its such a juggernaut in the international fan community that I think that many American fans may have unrealistic expectations for the show’s potential in America. The Suzumiya Haruhi anime has always been a show intended for a hardcore “otaku” audience, and that market is relatively small in America.

Reportedly at least the first two Japanese Melancholy of Suzumiya Haruhi DVDs have sold 100,000 copies each. In practical terms, no single anime DVD sells that many copies in America. American releases such as The Animatrix and Final Fantasy VII: Advent Children have tallied those sort of sales figures, but those two titles have massive American cross-market potential which Suzumiya Haruhi does not have. The Suzumiya Haruhi series is not suitable for American television broadcast because it’s neither slapstick comedy or action/adventure. The lack of television exposure in America will drastically limit its American market potential. The Suzumiya Haruhi anime series is fundamentally a lighthearted character relationship drama. The most successful anime titles in America have never fallen into that genre category. Major hit American anime titles including Cowboy Bebop, Inuyasha, Dragonball Z, Yu Yu Hakusho, Full Metal Alchemist, Rurouni Kenshin, Naruto, and Gundam Wing have virtually nothing in common with Suzumiya Haruhi, meaning that the mainstream consumers and casual anime fans who have made shows like Cowboy Bebop and Inuyasha so successful in America will not support Suzumiya Haruhi. In fact, much of the appeal of the Suzumiya Haruhi anime lies in its parodies of anime stereotypes and conventions. That subtle humor is only effective for hardcore otaku that recognize the conventions being skewered, and recognize the ways in which the Suzumiya Haruhi anime does the unexpected. Casual, mainstream, and novice anime watchers are unlikely to “get” jokes like a realistic portrayal of a typical Japanese schoolboy surrounded by aliens, girls in cosplay, an outrageously assertive and self-confident Japanese schoolgirl, and conventional plots like a murder mystery and epic space battle.

There’s certainly enough anticipation and interest in the Suzumiya Haruhi franchise to make the American release of the anime successful. But I don’t think that the series has the components necessary to become a breakthrough mainstream hit in America. I suggest that American fans anticipating Suzumiya Haruhi becoming a high water mark for American anime distribution rethink their estimation. The show may be the biggest hit of a generation in Japan, but the show doesn’t have the characteristics necessary to make it a smash success in America. Suzumiya Haruhi will undoubtedly be big in America’s fan community, but it won’t reach a large audience outside of the hardcore fan community. In other words, The Melancholy of Suzumiya Haruhi has a ceiling on its American potential for success. The show will probably match the success of similar school comedies and light dramas in America like Azumanga Daioh and Love Hina, but it won’t become another Cowboy Bebop or Fullmetal Alchemist scale breakout mainstream success.