Ask John: Will There Ever Be a Zero no Tsukaima Movie?

Question:
Will there be a Zero no Tsuakima movie, as popular the anime is?

Answer:
As I can’t predict the future, there’s no way for me to accurately predict whether there will or won’t ever be a Zero no Tsukaima theatrical anime production. However, I can provide some relevant contextual information that may enable a prediction. Although, in this particular case, considering precedent and circumstances may make a prediction even harder to judge.

Very few anime series maintain just enough popularity and commercial viability to sustain three television series while still not reaching breakthrough mass market success. Series like Ge Ge Ge no Kitaro, Lupin the Third, Mobile Suit Gundam, Dragon Ball, Ojamajo Doremi, Pretty Cure, Yu-Gi-Oh, and Pocket Monster have three or more television series because these franchises have been major, mainstream hits. Zero no Tsukaima is one of the rare franchises that has been popular enough to sustain three series while not reaching major mainstream recognition. More importantly, among franchises that do earn three or more television series, very few ever debut a theatrical feature after the third television iteration. Typically, shows that are popular enough to support a feature film get their first movie much earlier in the franchise’s lifespan than after a third TV series.

There are exceptions. Tetsujin 28 had four television series before getting a theatrical anime film adaptation. Magical Girl Lyrical Nanoha had three complete television series before its first theatrical film was announced. But a small handful of examples over the history of anime don’t provide exceptionally strong odds that Zero no Tsukaima will likewise receive a feature film after having had three TV series.

My gut instinct is that a theatrical feature adaptation of Zero no Tsukaima is a unlikely because the series is too niche to support the investment necessary to develop a theatrical feature. Zero no Tsukaima is quite popular among hardcore otaku, but possibly not popular enough to justify a major theatrical production. Zero no Tsukaima is a “late night” anime – a series with episodes broadcast after midnight. Late night anime are typically shows targeted at, and popular among hardcore otaku, and only hardcore otaku. By rough estimate, since the 1996 birth of the contemporary “late night” anime broadcast, less than 5% of all late night anime series have gotten theatrical features. With a percentage that low, the odds of Zero no Tsukaima becoming one of the very few late night anime series that do get a feature film aren’t very good.

But, on the other hand, the possibility of a Zero no Tsukaima anime film isn’t entirely unthinkable. Among late night anime that have had three television series, Aria and Zero no Tsukaima have not received any feature films. But Lyrical Nanoha and Initial D have while the .Hack franchise movie had a brief, limited Japanese theatrical release. The late night Inukami series is certainly not as popular or successful as the Zero no Tsukaima franchise, yet Inukami did receive a theatrical spin-off. And the fact that Lyrical Nanoha, which enjoys popularity similar to Zero no Tsukaima, is getting a feature film should give fans of Louise and Saito hope for someday seeing them on the big screen.

Article revised September 15, 2008