Ask John: Will Tsubasa Be As Successful in America as Fullmetal Alchemist?

Question:
Do you think Tsubasa will be as big as Fullmetal Alchemist?

Answer:
I don’t expect Tsubasa Chronicle to be remotely as successful in America as Fullmetal Alchemist was because it’s already not as popular. Fullmetal Alchemist was a blockbuster hit in Japan. Tsubasa Chronicle was also successful in Japan, but not quite as popular or successful as Fullmetal Alchemist. In the American fan community, Fullmetal Alchemist was a cult sensation, and there was tremendous anticipation for it preceding its American release. Tsubasa Chronicle has never been exceptionally popular in America’s fan community, and despite the fact that the first domestic DVD is due out little more than a month from now, there isn’t a ravenous fan demand for it. Furthermore, the domestic popularity of Fullmetal Alchemist was buoyed by its broadcast on the Cartoon Network. There are no plans for Tsubasa Chronicle to get major, nationwide television broadcast exposure, which will limit its potential for success.

Fullmetal Alchemist was an exceptional smash success because of its exceptional individual characteristics. The show had an interesting and empathetic cast, unusually good animation quality, exciting action, beautiful art design, and an engrossing narrative. On the other hand, the Tsubasa Chronicle anime is relatively slow paced. It relies heavily upon viewers being already familiar with creative group CLAMP’s previous works since supporting characters don’t have three-dimensional personalities. And the visual design of the two Tsubasa television series is typified by director Koichi Mashimo’s contemporary style that relies on atmosphere and visual impression and harmony rather than the colorful and highly detailed visual style of the Fullmetal Alchemist anime. Finally, Fullmetal Alchemist is a shonen action series while Tsubasa Chronicle may be called a fantasy romance. The bloody action and political intrigue of Fullmetal Alchemist make it appealing to male viewers. Its humorous and multi-dimensional characters and relationships make it attractive for female viewers. On the other hand, Tsubasa Chronicle has plenty of action, but it’s not the intense and gripping action of Fullmetal Alchemist. The theme of Tsubasa Chronicle is sacrifice for love, unlike Fullmetal Alchemist’s epic, heroic quest for enlightenment and redemption. In short, Tsubasa Chronicle doesn’t have the broad appeal to male and female viewers that Fullmetal Alchemist has.

Fullmetal Alchemist was a major hit in America long before its anime was ever officially available in America. Tsubasa Chronicle is only a few weeks away from American release, and it’s not already a raging success, nor do I see any signs that it’s likely to become an overnight sensation. I’m sure that Tsubasa Chronicle will perform well in America, as it already has a loyal fan base in America. But I don’t anticipate it ever achieving the stratospheric success that Fullmetal Alchemist attained.